Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

UPDATED-List of ORAL Weight loss candidates.

12/9/23 – Added Roche/Carmot’s CT996. I’m speculating that of the $2.7B plus $400 mill in milestones Roche is paying for Carmot, the majority was for their ORAL CT996 compound based on the market cap of GPCR. In addition to CT996, Roche also got an injectable Obesity NME with a different MOA (CT388 GLP1/GIP completed ph1) and a Type 1 Diabetes drug (CT868 GLP1/GIP completed ph1). Added some observations. Also cleaned up formatting.

This has become a very crowded field. Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) currently has the most interesting compound. Others which have we will soon find out more on are VKTX's VK2809, AZN's ECC5004, Kallyope's Hormone NME's and Roche/Carmot’s CT-996.


Here is an updated list of ORAL weight loss drugs currently in trials listed in possible commercial success tiers:

 
 		Most Interesting NME's	 
 	 
 Owner	Drug	        MOA		Comments 
 				 
 GPCR	GSBR-1290	GLP1		Structure Therapeutics -Significant weight loss in 28day Phase 1 (up to 4.9%) 
 VKTX	VK2809		GLP1/GIP	In phase 1- peptide 
 PFE	PF-06954522 	GLP-1		GLP1 for Type 2 Diabetes - just entered Ph1- very little info 
 AZN	ECC5004	        GLP-1		In Phase 1- small molecule GLP1- AZN paid 185mill + up to 1.8B milestones + royalties for compound. 
 Kallyope K757&K833	Hormone		New oral nutrient receptor agonists that stimulate the secretion of multiple appetite-suppressing satiety hormones 
 AMGN	Not Named	Undisclosed	Probably oral version of AMG 133 which activates GLP1 but inhibits GIP 
 RHHBY	CT996	        GLP1		In phase 1- small molecule.  From Carmot- Roche paid 2.7B for Carmot to acquire this Ph1 asset and 2 others 
 				 
 				 
 		May surprise	 
 	 
 LLY	Orforglipron 	GLP1		In phase 3- No comment at last CC 
 NOVO	Rybelsus	GLP1		Semaglutide- approved for Diabetes only but used off label 
 TERN	TERN-601	GLP1		Management discussing this drug in combination- not competitive standalone? 
  
 				 
 		Not going forward		 
 				 
 PFE	Lotiglipron 	GLP1		Discontinued due to elevated liver enzymes 
 PFE	PF-06882961 	GLP1		Danuglipron BID- Small Molecule- completed ph1 and in ph2b 
  
 

Here are some observations:

• PFE is trying very hard in this arena.
  
• Kallyope is private but someone may buy them or strike a deal.
  
• Viking Therapeutics is only public company with a NME having a potentially successful ORAL (possibly best in class tolerability). All other public companies are already "Big Pharma".
  
• Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) market cap of $2.87B is primarily based on GSBR-1290 in Obesity
  
• Roche paid an eye opening $2.7B for Carmot Therapeutics and prevented Carmot from going public

Again, anyone with knowledge of new Oral weight loss drug candidates is encouraged to reply to this post.