Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 9, 2023

At this time, the NY Gold Futures closed today at 20145. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on the MONTHLY level. Presently, this market has been rising for this month going into December reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 21523 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 19356. Nevertheless, this market is currently trading below last month's close of 20572.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during October. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 20276 and support forming below at 20098. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 21523, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 21523 to 20106. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 21523 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 18812 and 20520. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 21523. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 20356 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 18450 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 20854. After a six month rally from the previous low of 19360, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for six months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in December, this market has held above last month's low of 19356 reaching 20106.

This market is trading beneath that high of May which was 20854 by more than 2 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 18107 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding and is trading above last month's high.

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