Yeah, I used to closely watch the calendar, the weather forecast, subscribe to industry prognosis news letters, extrapolate futures to track contango/backwardation, and the like. NatGas is called the widow maker for a reason.
I have since simplified and just use the daily chart with simple trading rules. No longer trying to hit home runs, just get on base with a single or double and go with the momentum. I am a consummate student. Leaning is ongoing, and I adjust accordingly. GLTY