Recent NGTF CEO Post on Companies SM Site;
Sean Folkson, [Nov 30, 2023 at 8:55:07 PM]:
guys, there's plenty in the works.
I see people talking about things as thought Nightfood was dead. We're not. The opportunity remains as big as ever. The primary focus right now is on the acqusitions and DTC launch.
We're hiring specialized agencies because one individual (not me, or Simon, or most others) will have the skills and expertise required. It's the most cost effective way to go, especially considering we had months of gap from the time we were able to commit to the DTC initiative until we can launch. Paying people during that time would get expensive and we are working to preserve capital as we go here
We set out to solve a huge problem. Maybe we got starry-eyed when a Walmart or a global hotel company pitched us to do business with them, told us we had the next big thing, and made promises that weren't kept. So we move forward.
If I could change some things in the past, we would have done some things differently, including launching DTC cookies and other ambient snacks as early as possible after the ice cream launch. (I think Harry pointed that out)
A few of you mentioned how great the ice cream is, and I agree...but that's not enough to win in the supermarket freezers.
Here's a list of companies, big and small, that have had MASSIVE reductions in ice cream distribution in the most recent reports compared to a couple of years ago. Many are out of the ice cream business entirely now. After what happened with Walmart, I think pivoting out of supermarkets for us was the right move. (could be wrong, wouldn't be the first time).
Private label is up 33% from 2021. up huge are B&J, Haagen Dazs, Bryers, Blue Bell, Talenti, Tillamook, Blue Bunny (all 12-25%)
Down huge are
Halo Top
Rebel
Kind
FairLife
CoolHaus
Cheesecake Factory
Arctic Zero
So Delicious
Nada Moo
Peekaboo
Brave Robot
High Road
Ciao Bella
Double Rainbow
Re-Think
Planet Oat
Cado
Beckon
Killer Creamery
Some of these were darlings... SoDelicious is down from $85M in 2020 to $64M this year. Nada Moo went from $15M to $4M in the same time.
Halo Top from $191M to $122M in 3 years. Rebel down from $88M to $64M in same period. Arctic Zero from 6.2M to $3.4M
Cheesecake factory from 8.3M to $400K. Kind from 4.8M to $22,355. so that's 2 huge companies that toally left the space.
Fairlife this past year went from $9M to $2M.
To say that we needed to promote harder and we would have won is not something I agree with.
Many of these brands are owned by billion dollar companies.
To respond to what Daniel said, I do think we've learned a ton from what's gone wrong and what hasn't worked. The key lessons learned relate to messaging, and the avoidance of gatekeepers so that we can democratize who we sell to. the market for whate we're doing is huge but not concentrated. We weren't able to quickly enough build enough geographic demand concentration to support supermarket distribution. We sold well in hotels. Those procurement challenges are well-documented.
I believe our DTC launch will take all those lessons and allow us to succeed.
Does that guarantee we'll get everything correcet immediately out of the gate (or even get it all right at all)? no. Might DTC fail? yes.
But I continue to believe there's a billion dollar category out there. I don't think anybody here disagrees. So I keep working towards that.
Anybody thinking we're going to go under and/or run out of money, of course that's possible. But please consider that Mast Hill, to whom we owe approx $2M, just provided additional capital last month and again last week. As you can see from our filings, I have only been paid for 3 months this year (at $6K/month). And I put in $40K this year that won't get repaid until and unless Mast Hill is paid in full. That's not to complain, just to show everybody that my money (or lack of it) is where my mouth is.
Other than Simon, nobody else in the deck has left. Jerry is still with us, working on stuff for our filing as we speak, but not as CFO.
We're continuing to progress on the acquisitions, we expect financing to continue, and we expect DTC to allow us to put the category on the map.
I understand the frustration and the criticism, but those are my expectations, and that's what I'm working towards.
AI
