Eventual AVXL Share Price and Dividends Estimation
At 11:48am today the AVXL share price hit $8.18; an 8.06% gain for the day. What’s driving this steep share price ascent? “The market” or “the street” seem to be taking on new perspectives concerning Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
Here’s something that people with both potential and existing AVXL positions, just for fun (presently) should try. I just did it, and in every one of my iterations the final numbers were, well, phenomenal.
What are the potential values related to the holding of AVXL equities? What might future dividends and share values be? More importantly, what could be the actual ranges for these metrics? Here’s how I determined those.
On a spreadsheet, or with a calculator and a sheet of paper, try setting down various values. Here’s the ones I plugged in (but I won’t give the numbers I assigned to each –- that’s something for each AVXL investor to do).
In cell 1A, enter “Number of Barcamesine Patients.” In cell 2A, write in the number of patients you think will be treated in a given year.
In cell 2A, enter “Daily Drug Cost.” In cell 2B, enter the dollar amount you estimate a day’s treatment with blarcamesine will cost.
In cell 3A, enter “Annual ANAVEX Revenues.” In cell 3B, enter the formula =b1*365
In cell 4A, enter “Dividend Dropdown %.” In cell 4B enter the percent of annual revenues that you estimate will go out as dividends. If you think 5% of annual revs will go out as dividends, enter “0.05.”
In cell 5A, enter “Total Dividends Distributed.” In cell 5B, enter the formula “=b3*b4.”
In cell 6A, enter “No. of AVXL Shares.” In cell 6B, enter the number of AVXL shares in circulation. In my calculations, I used “100,000,000.” Presently, there are 81,950,000 AVXL shares.
In cell 7A, enter “Annual Per-share Dividend.” In cell 7B, enter the formula “=b5/b6.”
In cell 8A, enter “Owned Shares.” In cell 8B, enter the number of AVXL shares you own or will purchase.
In cell 9A, enter “My Annual Dividends.” In cell 9B, enter the formula “=b7*b8.”
In cell 10A, enter “Estimated P:E Ratio.” In cell 10B, enter a number you think is the price to earnings ratio number. A “20" will indicate that that the share price will be 20x the dividend.
Finally, in cell 11A, enter “Value of My AVXL Holding.” In cell 11B, enter the formula “=10b*8b.”
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Personally, I’ve accumulated over the years several thousand AVXL shares, presently with an 83% value gain. If Anavex is able to treat only a few hundred thousand patients a year, with very moderate $1000/year drug costs to the patient or insurance company, I and my beneficiaries are going to be very comfortable.
Are you considering the taking of an AVXL equity position? Plug in these numbers and see what a $500 dollar purchase of AVXLs might be worth in five years, when blarcamesine will actually be treating millions of people with CNS and other diseases.
