What If An Anavex Drug Gets Widely Used?
First, stop reading if you are looking here for useful investment advice. That’s not the intention whatsoever of this off-the-charts posting. Merely for curious contemplation....
What happens if, in, say, five or ten years, it is discovered that the homeostatic restoration properties of either blarcamesine or Anavex 3-71 markedly and safely slow normal aging processes in neurons and other cells or tissues; that those taking an Anavex drug safely gain prolonged good health after the age of 40 or 50?
As a result, either of the Anavex drugs can be taken as can aspirin, and those taking a daily Anavex drug have long, disease-free lives. Application of the Anavex anti-aging prophylaxis factor.
Let’s next presume that a daily dose costs the individual taking it a mere $1.00 each day. Not at all unreasonable. The drugs are small, not overly complicated molecules; of inexpensive manufacture. Anavex holds patents on their efficient manufacturing processes.
Next, in my spreadsheet calculations, I’ve presumed that, eventually, 500 million people across the globe will be taking an Anavex drug each day of each year. At a buck a day, that would be $182,500,000,000 in annual revenues going to Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
I next presumed that there would be a 5% dividend dropdown; that for each dollar of revenue Anavex would distribute $0.05 as a dividend out to each AVXL share in circulation. That calculates that Anavex would distribute as dividends a total of $9,125,000,000 each year.
I then presumed by that time there will be 100,000,000 AVXL shares in circulation.
With those metrics, the annual per-share dividend would be $91.25. I have a small holding of several thousand AVXL shares. Should all of this play out as described, this will be for my family and beneficiaries generational wealth. But even if I’m off by two orders of magnitude (100x too high), I’ll still be quite comfortable.
Now, back to today’s reality. For the above, I’ll check back in five to ten years.
