Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Hoskuld]

The first indication will be Rett, if P3 juvenile data is good. There are few Rett specialists so marketing and selling will not be overly challenging. Of the 12,000 Rett patients, I would expect 4,000 on 2-73 within a year. At 200,000 per patient that is $800M in annual revenue run rate. Maybe they will do better, IDK. Maybe they will get approval for other markets simultaneously.

If approved for AD, 2-73 will almost sell itself: neurologists can do nothing for AD now so they literally prescribe nearly anything even if there is virtually no chance of impacting disease course. I would be pretty surprised if 2-73 isn't selling to at least 300,000 patients after a year - and it wouldn't surprise me if 1,000,000+ patients were being Rx'ed. So I would expect revenue for AD to be between $3b and $10b, and Rett to be north of $1b at that point. Those revenue numbers support a big market cap but whether that is a 6x multiple or 15x multiple of revenue...I don't know.