Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 28, 2023

This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened lower and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 20197. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 15 trading sessions and there is a potential to move up for another 2 daysNevertheless, this market remains well above all seven of our intial support levels. Meanwhile, this market's closing at this time has been the highest during this 15 day rally. This certainly warns that we can still see higher highs ahead from here. It will take a closing below 19864 to signal a decline is unfolding. Nonetheless, the market remains neutral on our system indicators yet the immediate indicator is positive right now.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 1999 moving into a major high for 2020, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2022 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 16183. On the other hand, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 2020, which tends to warn that the 2020 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Notwithstanding, 2022 was, in fact, an outside reversal to the downside closing lower than the previous year. On the other hand, we have elected all four intermediate Yearly Bullish Reversals to date from the turning point of 2022 from this 2022 reaction low.

Curiously, the market has been only consolidating since that 2022 low and has been unable to exceed the high of that year while holding the low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 19920 and overhead resistance forming above at 20092. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 23rd at 20197, which was up 3 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 20197 to 19646. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to strengthen since the previous low at 18235 made 3 weeks. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of October 23rd reaching 20197 has exceeded the previous high of 19689 made back during the week of September 18th.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

After closing above last year's low of 16733 when it was an outside reversal to the downside yet it did close lower. This immediate year, the market did open higher, thus far, but this market has rallied exceeding last year's high. and remains below last year's high of 20788. This market is still above the normal trading yearly envelope where the top remains at 17906. The last Breakout Mode indicator took place in during 2003.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 20854. After a six month rally from the previous low of 19360, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for six months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in October, this market has fallen to a new low reaching 18235.

This market is trading beneath that high of May which was 20854 by more than 2 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 18107 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

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