Good morning people , A little FYI, Part of the story is that an 8% mortgage environment isn't that different from a 7% mortgage environment. Demand has been slammed. There is significant lock-in, due to people not wanting to give up their ZIRP-era 3% mortgages. So inventory is still rock bottom.
That being said, the affordability shock has been so great that there's a limit to how much prices can appreciate, and if there is any kind of meaningful expansion of supply, then we might finally see downward pressure on how much houses cost.
As he sees it, supply is everything and that's what you want to be watching like a hawk. For awhile, it looked like supply might loosen up a little bit at the margins, but with the latest uptick in rates, the lock-in effect can be expected to tighten more.
One interesting dynamic that comes across -- in a few of our conversations lately -- is how much of the economy is becoming inelastic. Kind of on autopilot. There's this huge energy transition going on, that entails tons of public spending and investment, and it's kind of separate from the rest of the economic cycle. Meanwhile with housing, there's a growing share of the home-owning public that's over 65, and aging in place. According to Egan, for years, about 25% of homes in the US were owned by people over 65. Now it's up to 33%. Lots of these owners own their house free and clear, with no mortgage, or no impulse to sell. And so even if we were to see a recession and a rise in layoffs, there's just a large swathe of the housing stock that that won't be affected by macro-economic conditions.
Earlier this week, we got a rough homebuilder confidence report marking the lowest level since January. Now that we're hitting another big round number on the cost of a mortgage, it'll be interesting to see if that depresses demand even further
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A little over 6 yrs + I sold my house within 30/45 minutes after putting it up on the market for my asking price , but the rates were low of course
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As for the turmoil about monies coming back here for or against, I truly don’t know, I have always just counted on my investment in the now period whatever the papers title was at the time , but I did hold a nice amount of Ks and I’m sure there would be a lot more of millionairesS here IFFEN ever which I would be one of ,
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Time to hit the gym, running a little late today
People have a great day & don’t let the noise from dark places bother you cause haters are going to hate regardless,GoGooooooCOOP -GLTA-Ts
Bullish
