Monday, October 16, 2023 7:14:16 AM
Mentioned: F GM NFLX STLA TSLA
Global risks are mounting and investors are looking for havens.
But the flight to safety is excluding one major traditional haven asset -- U.S. Treasuries.
The growing uncertainty caused by the Israel-Hamas war, and the risk of a wider conflict, would typically see U.S. government bonds come into their own as a haven asset -- as gold did last week. They sort of did, before Thursday's 30-year Treasury debt auction pointed to weak demand and consumer price inflation came in hotter than expected.
There's too much going on in the bond market for it to perform as a haven right now.
With another key Treasury auction Wednesday, bonds may once again dictate the markets' direction, despite earnings from Tesla, Netflix, and Goldman Sachs also being on tap.
Aside from the auction, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Economic Club of New York could be pivotal, as investors look for further direction on how high interest rates will stay and for how long.
If Powell echoes Vice Chair Philip Jefferson's view that surging bond yields have done some of the Fed's work for it, leading it away from further rate increases, that could help lower yields and boost stocks.
But for now the bond market remains something of an unknown quantity, and anything but a haven. In fact, despite being a high-growth stock and facing several questions heading into earnings, Tesla could be a safer bet.
-- Callum Keown
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