It may be that while there were a lot of jobs created, 70% of those jobs were in hospitality, leisure and other services. So, lots of Mc-jobs which keep people off of unemployment but don't pay enough to allow much, if any, discretionary spending.
There has been a lot of talk about how employees and unions are causing inflation to stay high because of wage demands. The numbers don't bear that out. According to the St. Louis Fed, median US household income was $78,250 in 2019. It has fallen 4.7% through 2022 while CPI has moved up over 15% from January 2020 through December 2022. . That is, consumers are roughly 20% under water from 2019 in real household earnings and will likely fall another 4% this year without adjustments. It appears household income will rise again this year, maybe even get back to 2019 levels. If so, American households will be making much less in real terms than they were in 2019 but talking heads will likely blame them for inflation.
Median income does not include capital gains or lump sum payments so it's unlikely COVID relief payments are included. As consumers have run through those payments the reality of this issue will hit home. American households are considerably less well off than they were at the end of 2019.
Rule #1, Don't lose money. Rule #2, read rule #1. - WB.
