Deutsche Bank issues warning on expected deliveries miss
Analysts are changing their tune on Tesla (TSLA) third-quarter delivery estimates, cutting predictions just days before the EV giant is expected to release quarterly delivery data.
Expect delivery forecasts to keep coming down, as analysts adjust their figures in the final days. Some recent notes state Tesla's Q3 deliveries will come in well below 460,000.
On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner cut the firm's price target on Tesla stock to 285 from 300. Rosner also lowered his Tesla delivery prediction to 440,000, down from 455,000.
Moreover, Rosner sees "meaningful downside risk" to 2024 consensus estimates due to limited volume growth. Deutsche Bank expects 2024 deliveries to total 2.1 million, below the current consensus of 2.3 million units. Rosner also sees 2024 EPS of $3.90, which would be below 2022 profit levels.
Meanwhile, Baird analyst Ben Kallo on Tuesday projected Tesla deliveries to total 439,200 vehicles in Q3. Kallo wrote that "planned factory downtime" and "questions regarding demand" have created confusion about which way Tesla deliveries will go.
On Friday, Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote that he expects Tesla to deliver 455,000 vehicles and production to be 435,000 vehicles, down from 480,000 produced in Q2.
"Underscoring our expectation for a slight miss is that demand remains soft. Of course pricing actions may have helped offset weak demand to some extent, as we saw ongoing price actions in 3Q," Levy wrote, adding that inventory is likely reduced amid price discounts.
New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu added Friday he expects Tesla to deliver 438,000 units, 5% below the consensus view.
