NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[ae kusterer]

hope4patients: what's the range of estimates ?, 2) please post proof of the NSP.

Re: Stockpile4u post# 632696

Wednesday, September 20, 2023 7:11:13 AM

Post#
632698
of 632707
The naked short position (NSP) in NWBO is astronomical according to some….things are about to get explosive if that’s true.

biosectinvestor

Member Level
Re: HyGro post# 632677

Wednesday, September 20, 2023 3:32:48 AM

Post#
632681
of 632709
Let's respond to your points, one-by-one:

1. No cash for more trials. With the results DCVax-L is returning, and ATL-DC is, in fact, DCVax-L, this won't be a problem once they settle on who they want to work with and how much is necessary to do a deal with them. I am not worried about this issue at this time. They could also be bought.

2. Barely meeting payroll... This is your assertion. There is nothing at all suggesting this is an issue. They have shares they can issue, and a rising stock price.

3. Didn't participate in the NIH/SPORE Combo trials with Keytruda. True, irrelevant. NWBO owns the manufacturing and marketing rights to DCVax-L and they have a pre-existing research arrangement with UCLA as well as again, the full marketing rights. They have advanced manufacturing technology as well and will own the marketing rights once they apply. Pfizer has nothing to do with that, they of course contributed Keytruda but even Pfizer is not a "sponsor". It's just not relevant. Further, the combination patent which could be used with ANY checkpoint inhibitor, including Keytruda, lists both NWBO and UCLA personnel as the inventors, so it's pretty clear this is all in collaboration and part of the ongoing commercialization arrangements. If I have to, I will post my full set of posts that absolutely and positively confirm that ATL-DC is, in fact, DCVax-L.

4. MHRA UK approval is not enough to survive on... Well, I think they will get FDA approval, as a rare disease with a wide range of supporting evidence, from the Phase 3, the many compassionate use patients, the previous trials, the side-arm trials, of which there have been a few, the adjuvant trial that is getting published in Nature shortly, and the combination trial, I don't think they will lack for justification, especially not for a rare and almost 100% fatal disease like GBM. I think they will also easily extend to Gliomas.

A simple check with multiple AI's, just of the UK gives the following just for the UK market, based only on GBM and gliomas from the nature submission.

UK:
Potential revenue: £1.25 billion
Suggested market cap: £18.8 - £25 billion
This matches the provided estimate.



The AI looked at the actual results and felt they were quite good.

So it by itself added a premium to the potential that NICE might be able to provide. It suggests much higher charges for the US, Europe and Canada. It even suggested that if the 10 year numbers hold up, a greater premium might be justified. Currently the exchange rate for the UK is 1 GBP to 1.23 USD. So you'll have to convert these numbers to dollars to get the real figures.

UK:
Eligible patients: ~5,000
Treatment cost: £250,000
Sales multiple: 15-20x



Obviously, that is 100% of the market. I don't think it is unreasonable to presume DCVax-L might become the preferred standard of care and they may even be better and better at generating vaccines from small tumor samples, which I think I read somewhere a long time ago. However, even if we reduce by 1/2, that's a pretty great market.

One might change the assumptions, certainly. But they won't stop at the UK. They also have a good shot at Europe, I believe as well as the US and Canada. I won't show you all the numbers I have because they are pretty crazy. AI's might be about as skilled as most of us at doing these kinds of calculations, simplistically. But still, the potential is quite large. Some persons have put up numbers around here for years that I often discounted, but just for brain tumors alone, globally, the potential revenue and market caps are quite impressive. It presumes approvals and we need to see yet where we end up, but the current market cap measures are absurdly low, given the potentials, IMHO

Using the provided exchange rate of 1 GBP = 1.24 USD, the UK figures converted into USD are:

Potential revenue: $1.55 billion
Suggested market cap range: $23.25 billion - $31 billion
Thus, for the UK market, the company could potentially have a market capitalization between $23.25 billion and $31 billion when converted to USD using the given exchange rate.



That's just for the UK market alone.
I own NWBO. My posts on iHub are always posted expressly as just my humble opinion (IMHO) and none are advice, just my opinion. I am NOT a financial advisor, and it is assumed that everyone is responsible for their own due diligence.

Lykiri

Re: Guzzi62 post# 583725

Saturday, April 08, 2023 7:05:40 AM

Post#
583734
of 632709
Is it true that Prof- Dr. Matthias Preusser was not impressed by the phase3 trial?


Guzzi62,
Autologous tumor lysate-loaded dendritic cell vaccination (DCVax-L) in glioblastoma: Breakthrough or fata morgana?
Matthias Preusser, Martin J van den Bent


https://academic.oup.com/neuro-oncology/article/25/4/631/6958519?login=false

Obvious?

EANO

Michael Weller - 2016 - Min 10.30-



Matthias Preusser : Autologous tumor lysate-loaded dendritic cell vaccination (DCVax-L) in glioblastoma: Breakthrough or fata morgana?

Martin j van den Bent :
First results on the DCVax phase III trial: raising more questions than providing answers.https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30137551/

Autologous tumor lysate-loaded dendritic cell vaccination (DCVax-L) in glioblastoma: Breakthrough or fata morgana? https://academic.oup.com/neuro-oncology/article/25/4/631/6958519?login=false

Wolfgang Wick : First results on the DCVax phase III trial: raising more questions than providing.

Patrick Roth : Vaccination ( negative phase 3 trials: ACT-IV, DCVax-L) https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167233202

Dennis Migliorini: Autologous tumor lysate-loaded dendritic cell vaccination in glioblastoma: What happened to the evidence?
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0035378723009190

Roger Stupp : Dendritic Vaccine for Glioblastoma: Hope Hyped, Say Some. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/898007?icd=login_success_email_match_norm

2022 Top Story in Oncology: DCVax in Patients With Newly Diagnosed and Recurrent Glioblastoma
Written by Roger Stupp MD
https://www.practiceupdate.com/content/2022-top-story-in-oncology-dcvax-in-patients-with-newly-diagnosed-and-recurrent-glioblastoma/143631
These guys are showing some extreme confirmation bias, IMO.