There was a time when a stock price dropping 10% or more in a week would have made me panic. I'm a more patient investor now, and I am more willing to accept the consequences of my actions. It's called aging, and it's both awesome and horrible at the same time. I can probably guess within 3 to 5 years most people's ages here solely on their message board decorum. This is how I determine who to ignore -- give me a respectful critic whose opinions differ from mine and I'll gladly listen without using terms like FUD, cabal soldier, paid basher, etc. This applies to all my investments.
Most likely, the stock price will continue to drop in the short term, especially if the economy tanks leading into an election year. Investors do not like to see paper profits fade and when a company like Anavex has zero revenue, it's possible (until there's a patterned cash flow) that those losses become permanent. There isn't even a product available to sell yet, and Big Pharma has a lot of influence over small cap startups. In a worst case scenario, there's nothing to even turn around -- Dr. Missling should have enough cash to start over, but even the most patient longs will not be willing to reset the clock with A371 or something new.
Additionally, Dr. Missling has fumbled the ball a few times. Fortunately, he's recovered each time but a pattern is starting to emerge that should give people like me a bit of pause for concern. I don't buy into Adan Feuerstein's theory of shifting goalposts, but I do think Dr. Missling made some errors in judgement in how he presented past data. That said, fumbles happen. Nobody is perfect. I don't watch a football game and not expect to see a few fumbles.
I wish those with critical opinions would be as objective as I've tried to been, because I never see any of them highlight the positives -- of which there are many. For example, we've advanced from a broke company with an idea to a company that is in discussions with the FDA for P3 approval for a rare pediatric disease. That's all kudos to Dr. Missling.
Hiring Dr. Jin has relieved my concerns that we'll continue to see errors in judgment or "funny statistics" going forward. And I absolutely believe Dr. Missling timed certain press releases to pump the stock before his options expired. He's greedy. One may argue this is a good trait for a biotech startup CEO. He knows that if Blarcamesine does work, it's worth a lot more than what someone will pay for it now or even 3 years from now. I want a CEO with a long-term outlook.
There are two paths for FDA approval and Anavex is pursuing the one it believes gives it the best shot at success. It may be less common and less known (admit it: how many people were aware of this second pathway -- I wasn't) but if it's good enough for the FDA it's good enough for me.
When I was single, someone once told me that if I wanted to date women out of my league I needed to be kind, funny or rich. I didn't need to be all three, but two of the three helps. I believe Anavex has two of the three. It's safe and effective. It doesn't have to be a full-on cure. It just has to work as well as the Lecanemab jab.
