Hey goldbug7, here is a guess...
A work plan has to be submitted with a license request and the license grant usually has a performance requirement to stay in-force such as "drill a well by xyz date per the work plan". In this case, I suspect the work plan says "re-enter, stimulate, and test MJ-01 by xyz date". And the exact method of stimulation would have to be specified and approved. In this case, the stimulation is no doubt the fracking-light method used on MJ-02. So, the implication is that Zion has approval to frack MJ-01. The work plan might have also listed future drilling plans based on the 3D and learning from MJ-01/02. I am 100% sure that the license approval was based on the P50 reservoir size for the MJ-01 re-entry as the Ministry is very focused on economics and all the economics are available at this stage to put the financial investment/return analysis in place.
Looking at recent Zion PRs, sounds like they have most of the logistics planned and much of the equipment in place. But, they need $10M to actually do the work. So, I would guess there will not be substantial work until the funds are raised; its anyone's guess how long this will take. Perhaps a whale steps up or perhaps there is a new units offering for public participation.
So, to answer you question - If Zion announces the target P50 in companion with a new units offering, even if the P50 is not earth shattering large, then I think they will get the $10M and the re-entry project will move forward timely; likely completed by 4Q as they stated. If they do not announce the P50, then the Units offering will fail as did the last one. Then we are at the mercy of a whale again for the work to get done on any timeline. This is all my opinion of course.
I appreciate JB asking for God's provision in his last email - we should all being praying for God's provision in all aspects of our lives. However, I am putout with Zion for not telling investors what the opportunity is via a P50 number or similar. I don't think the opportunity (reservoir size) is large, so maybe Zion is embarrassed that its so low relative to speculation over the last few years. I don't know why they do not disclose the reservoir's size, but they are the only exploration company that I am familiar with that is raising funds for drilling that does not disclose the probable reservoir size. This leaves them wide open for criticism and rightfully so in my opinion - don't follow industry practices by telling investors what the upside is if oil is found, but just ask them to pray for funds coming in. If they continue keeping secrets from investors, I believe their investor pool will remain small and they will have difficulty raising the $10M absent a whale.
