Ron,
I have been looking at the numbers for a while, and this is what I came up with.
Before I start, the numbers presented in the Wall Street Resources 'analysist' are significantly different than the ones offered yesterday. The amount of the biogas increased more than 3X, while the amount of ash decreased by about 20% between the WSR report and yesterdays PR. I will use yesterday's numbers, because they are supposedly from a more finely tuned machine.
Electricity from the fuel;
640,000 BTU x .000293 kWh = 187.52 kWh
Maximus said there was a 50% efficiency for the generator, so we have a grand total of 93.76 kWh
Electricty from the gas;
9.81 lb x 1908 BTU x .000293 kWh = 5.48 kWh
Assuming the same efficiency, we get 2.74 kWh
93.76 + 2.74 = 96.5 kWh
According to the WSR report, the average selling price of electricity was $0.033 per kWh. This is the price that utilities sell their electricity to the grid for, not what customers pay. I realize this number may be outdated, but as is the $6 per bushel of soybean assumption, but I will keep that at $6
So
96.5 kWh x .033 = $3.19
Now for the ash,
15.93 lbs of ash per bushel, the WSR says that if USSE was to sell the ash, they may be able to get $0.05 per lb for it. I believe there may be talk of using the ash to power the generators, but it seems like a logical conclusion that burnt ash would be more profitable as a fertilizer, instead of burning it again.
15.93 lbs x $0.05 = $0.80
Totals;
The price that you would expect to get from the electricity production plus the sale of the organic fertilizer is
$3.19 + $0.80 = $3.99
The total worth on the open market of the $6 bushel of soybeans is now magically reduced to $4. That is a decrease of 33%. This number doesn't include the Green Certs, because I have heard nothing solid about just what that value may be. This price also, however, does not include production costs, and it doesn't deduct from USSEC's use of their own power to produce the product.
I hope this helps.
Murph
Edit; I tried making these numbers conversions, but the formatting didn't work out, the rates are .000293 kWh per BTU, if there are other conversions that don't make sense I will be happy to explain them.
