Thursday, September 07, 2023 3:09:50 PM
Let's try to analyze this chart to see if we think we're seeing a repeat of the same pattern. I'm not convinced as I see the following issues:
A: In instance 1&2 the fall in openings is reactionary and occurs during and after a recession.
B: In instance 3 the fall is proactive. It's before COVID or the recession. The 2nd half is COVID, the economy closing.
C: In instance 4 the fall is proactive. So far only taking us back to a normal rate of job openings.
I'm not saying I think we will not see a recession, just that I don't think this chart makes the case that a sharp decline in openings will lead to a major? recession. One gets the sense that the author is correlating the two phenomena.
A: In instance 1&2 the fall in openings is reactionary and occurs during and after a recession.
B: In instance 3 the fall is proactive. It's before COVID or the recession. The 2nd half is COVID, the economy closing.
C: In instance 4 the fall is proactive. So far only taking us back to a normal rate of job openings.
I'm not saying I think we will not see a recession, just that I don't think this chart makes the case that a sharp decline in openings will lead to a major? recession. One gets the sense that the author is correlating the two phenomena.
Rule #1, Don't lose money. Rule #2, read rule #1. - WB.
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