I don't believe we'll be presenting at CTAD in October. And that's not a bad thing. Dr. Missling isn't going to turn into a pumpkin this October, so why use CTAD as some arbitrary date where if we don't get more updates, it's time to panic?
I'll use the timeline provided by Dr. Missling himself. He said expect results by the end of 2023. I'll give an extra 45 days grace period because of the holidays and all that, plus the time it can take to have attorneys review press releases, etc. So by mid-February, or 5-6 more months. If by then there's still radio silence for Rett or Alzheimer's I'll begin to have some questions to ask at the next shareholder meeting.
What I do believe is that Dr. Missling is holding out for a journal publication. That's when he will publicly reveal the data everyone wants. No matter what he says before JAMA or some other entity peer-reviews the Alzheimer's trial, there will be those who call him a liar and use any opportunity to write more hit pieces attacking his character and credibility, the trial design and the efficacy results. When Dr. Missling said he wants to take the market by surprise, I think that was a targeted comment aimed directly at those who have been betting against him.
For what it's worth, I also do not expect a big-time partnership announcement. I think if anything we'll see an agreement that gives away just a fraction of the profits for a short duration and is limited in scope, such as handling manufacturing or distribution. My gut feeling tells me that Dr. Missling isn't looking to retire the day after the FDA makes a decision. He wants to build this company into something big if the trials continue to show potential for multiple CNS diseases. My feeling is that we'll end up partnering with a smaller company, or perhaps even someone like Dr. Reddy's.
So if we end up presenting at CTAD next month, awesome. But if not, whatever. Let the stock price do what it'll do. Dr. Missling said the end of 2023 so I'll give him until early 2024. Until then, there's not really much else that needs to be said absent more news on the Rett front.
