Since it's a slow weekend, I thought I'd re-post Gator's comments from the last CC. It's a great read.
Gator328
Wednesday, August 09, 2023
Some thoughts on today's conference call.
1. This is by far the most confident Dr. Missling has ever been in a public meeting. I can't understand a single thing MayoMobile writes about the science, but I can spot a con artist a mile away. In my former career, I dealt with scumbags and fraudsters all the time. They're easy to spot if you know how because they all hide behind a veneer of confidence. Deep down they know there's a chance they'll be exposed and that creates a different sort of confidence than what I heard from Dr. Missling today. He spoke with conviction and authority.
2. I don't think Dr. Missling ever forgot about or forgave the likes of Feuerstein, Fonteneau, Michaud, etc. They made his job far more stressful and difficult than it should have been, and I have a feeling his "take the market by surprise" could result in some max pain if he ends up on the winning side of the bet. The guy's got an MBA from Northwestern. He knows all the ways to maximize shareholder value at the expense of shorts. I'd much rather have someone like that than an MD who has zero years of professional financial experience or education.
3. We have 4 years of runway. That's insanely good cash management. While we don't know the terms of these partnerships, we do know that there isn't a significant cash outflow so he's striking financially prudent deals. My guess is there's no shortage of companies wanting to partner with Anavex, which leads me to the next comment...
4. Dr. Missling verbatim told us that he has received offers. These are easily verifiable claims if an investigation were to ever be launched. I have no reason not to believe him. There's been more M&A spending in 2023 than in previous years and there's still lots of money on the sidelines. This is the best possible time to have a marketable drug candidate.
5. Dr. Missling's suggestion that the extended trial could substitute for a P4 confirmatory was interesting, but it's not something that affects the calculus of my investment thesis. If it happens, great! But I've always believed we'll need another Alzheimer's trial and in the meantime, Rett will provide enough short-term revenue to prevent further dilution. The confirmatory trial is more or less pointless because everyone will know within a few months if Blarcamesine works once it becomes available, and there will be a direct comparison against those taking the -Mab treatments. Let the better drug win. If it takes another two years to get to market for Alzheimer's, that's just two more years of building demand for the product launch.
Sometimes in a poker game there's a point where it's no longer necessary to be secretive. I was pleased to see Dr. Missling finally reveal his hand when he spoke of offers received, releasing data within the next 4 months, and that he's firmly aware of current market forces and expects to counter them at the time of his choosing.
Also, thanks to all who sent private messages after I announced I'd be leaving this board. This site will not allow me to reply without paying a monthly fee. It's been a nice break from thinking about Anavex in general because at this point I feel like my money is parked and there's nothing anyone can say or do to influence the outcome. If I win I win big. If I lose I lose relatively small. That's how I look at it.
When this all finally plays out, there will be longs who made money and longs who lost money. Same with the shorts. But the musical chairs game is about to come to a screeching halt and I'm pretty confident I'll be able to find a place to sit when it does.
