Monday, August 21, 2023 10:47:40 PM
Have an AVXL position, a holding of the shares of Anavex Life Sciences Corp.? Or considering the acquisition of one?
It would then be useful to calculate estimated or potential values of such an equity holding. As I do about once a year I punched my AVXL numbers on a spreadsheet. Same numbers as before. No changes. All are estimations of potential values. If Anavex goes bust, the values will all be zero (except for the negative value of my sunk costs in acquiring my modest AVXL position).
I’ll give only some starting numbers; not my final number runouts. I’ll let each determine those for himself.
I presumed two different scenarios for Anavex. In the first, I presumed that at some time in the future blarcamesine would be prescribed and allowed as an anti-aging prophylactic; where a certain number of people would take a tablet of blarcamesine each day, to preserve health in the last half of life.
Of course, these numbers are only rather arbitrary estimates. In practice (should this all play out) the numbers could be larger or smaller. For prophylactic purposes I presumed that people taking blarcamesine would pay a dollar a day for the drug. Of that, I presumed that 10%, ten-cents, would end up going out to AVXL shareholders as dividends.
To be conservative, I then presumed just 300 days in the year; a total of $30 annually going out in dividends for each blarcamesine prophylaxis patient.
I won’t reveal the total number of patients who would be taking blarcamesine each year for prophylaxis. Estimate your own number.
At the same time, I estimated that there will be a total of 100 million (100,000,000) outstanding AVXL shares.
With those estimates, one can calculate the total amount going out in dividends. Divide the total funds available for dividends by 100,000,000; which will reveal the annual per-share dividend.
Then, multiply the size of your AVXL position by the per-share dividend. That’s your yearly AVXL dividends total.
The other calculation I made involved blarcamesine as a treatment for Alzheimer’s (some day). Same run-through. For this, I presumed each Alzheimer’s patient taking blarcamesine would yield to Anavex $1 per day that would drop down to dividends payouts. Again, to be conservative, I presumed only 300 days in the year. For each Alzheimer’s patient taking blarcamesine, $300 each year would go out in dividend payments.
Then, estimate for yourself how many Alzheimer’s patients would be taking blarcamesine each year. Multiply that times 300 and that’s the estimated dividends total for the year.
Divide that by outstanding shares, 100,00,000, and you have the size of the per-share dividend.
Lastly, multiply that dividend number times the number of AXL shares you have or will purchase. Your annual dividends number.
It’s clear. If blarcamesine gains sales and use approval, and it is used either as a cheap prophylactic, or as the standard of care (SOC) treatment of Alzheimer’s, just a tiny AVXL position will be very profitable. I have a very moderate AVXL position, acquired incrementally over many years with discretionary budget funds. I was astonished at the number of digits needed in my calculations.
Run your own numbers. Be aware of the eventual dollar-value potentials for an AVXL position, of any size.
Recent AVXL News
- Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the H.C. Wainwright 5th Annual Neuro Perspectives Virtual Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 06/20/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/17/2024 11:30:10 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences Announces Expansion of Leadership Team • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/22/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/17/2024 10:01:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the H.C. Wainwright 2nd BioConnect Investor Conference at NASDAQ • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/14/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Shareholders that lost money on Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) Urged to Join Class Action - Contact The Gross Law Firm to Learn More • PR Newswire (US) • 05/10/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/09/2024 08:35:55 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/09/2024 12:00:30 PM
- Anavex Life Sciences Reports Fiscal 2024 Second Quarter Financial Results and Provides Business Update • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/09/2024 11:30:00 AM
- The Gross Law Firm Announces the Filing of a Securities Class Action on Behalf of Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) Shareholders • PR Newswire (US) • 05/07/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Form DEFA14A - Additional definitive proxy soliciting materials and Rule 14(a)(12) material • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/06/2024 10:03:33 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences Corporation Sued for Securities Law Violations - Contact The Gross Law Firm Before May 13, 2024 to Discuss Your Rights - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 05/03/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences to Announce Fiscal 2024 Second Quarter Financial Results on Thursday, May 9th, 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/02/2024 11:30:00 AM
- May 13, 2024 Deadline: Contact The Gross Law Firm to Join Class Action Suit Against AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 04/26/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Contact The Gross Law Firm by May 13, 2024 Deadline to Join Class Action Against Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) • PR Newswire (US) • 04/19/2024 09:45:00 AM
- The Gross Law Firm Reminds Shareholders of a Lead Plaintiff Deadline of May 13, 2024 in Anavex Life Sciences Lawsuit - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 04/16/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Class Action Filed Against Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) - May 13, 2024 Deadline to Join - Contact The Gross Law Firm • PR Newswire (US) • 04/12/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the Noble Capital Markets Virtual Healthcare Equity Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/11/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Class Action Filed Against Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) - May 13, 2024 Deadline to Join - Contact The Gross Law Firm • PR Newswire (US) • 04/09/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences Corporation Class Action: The Gross Law Firm Reminds Anavex Life Sciences Investors of the Pending Class Action Lawsuit with a Lead Plaintiff Deadline of May 13, 2024 - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 04/05/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Shareholders that lost money on Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) should contact The Gross Law Firm about pending Class Action - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 04/02/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Lost Money on Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL)? Join Class Action Suit Seeking Recovery - Contact The Gross Law Firm • PR Newswire (US) • 03/29/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Investors who lost money on Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) should contact The Gross Law Firm about pending Class Action - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 03/26/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the 23rd Annual Needham Virtual Healthcare Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/25/2024 11:30:00 AM
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