The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

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The Electric-Vehicle Bubble Starts to Deflate
Biden is imitating China just as its industrial policy starts to crack.
By The Editorial Board

Aug. 21, 2023 6:38 pm ET

It’s ironic, to say the least, that the U.S. is seeking to imitate China’s economic model at the moment that its industrial policy fractures. Look no further than its collapsing electric-vehicle bubble, which is a lesson in how industries built by government often also fail because of government.

Tesla last week slashed its prices in China to boost sales in an oversaturated EV market. In July Tesla and other auto makers in China agreed to stop their EV price war, only to scrap the cease-fire days later owing to government antitrust concerns. While lower prices may benefit consumers, auto makers in China are bleeding red ink and going bust.

A plethora of Chinese EV start-ups launched in the past decade, fueled by government support, including consumer incentives and direct financing. Auto makers churned out EVs to suck up subsidies. Giant property developer Evergrande Group launched an EV unit as its real-estate empire began to implode, but now the EV unit is foundering too.

About 400 Chinese electric-car makers have failed in the past several years as Beijing reduced industry subsidies while ramping up production mandates. Scrap-yards around China are littered with EVs whose technology has become outdated, redolent of its unoccupied housing developments created by government-driven investment.

Beijing recently extended an EV sales-tax exemption to soften the industry’s problems. Auto makers are nonetheless having to slash prices to sell cars they are required to make, which is eroding margins. China’s EV mandate is similar to those imposed by California and the Biden Administration and especially punishes the West’s traditional fossil-fuel auto makers.

Volkswagen’s joint-venture in China this month announced up to $8,200 in incentives for its electric ID.6 X model. GM Chevrolet dealers in China are discounting EVs by more than 25%. Although EVs now make up a third of auto sales in China, supply still far exceeds demand. This gap will likely grow as Chinese consumption weakens.

As with real estate, Chinese government support inflated EV investment and misallocated capital that could have been put to more productive uses. Now comes the destruction that invariably follows the government creation, which may be a harbinger for the U.S. as the Biden Administration emulates China’s EV industrial policy.

Cox Automotive reported this month that EV inventory had swelled to 103 days of supply in the U.S., about double that of gas-powered cars. Auto makers and dealers are discounting EVs to sell their growing supply. The average EV price paid by consumers has fallen 20% compared with a year ago to $53,438, driven by Tesla’s price cuts and dealer incentives.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles-china-biden-administration-industrial-policy-754e1937?mod=hp_opin_pos_1