I'd like to put some hard numbers to the idea that solar can be installed and brought on-line for 1.5 cents a kWh. In a modern solar installation, sited at an ideal location, tilt and azimuth, a solar panel will produce 1.5 kWh per year for every installed watt. That is, a megawatt install will produce 1.5 million kWh of energy per year.
The life of a solar panel is roughly 30 years. That is, each installed watt will produce 45 kWh over its lifetime. To meet the 1.5 cents per kWh the installation would have to cost, all in, 67.5 cents per installed watt. Even after all incentives and tax rebates I don't see how that's possible.
Then we must consider the time value of money. We pay for a system with present money value and expect a return over time at a lower future value. By the 30th year, it's exponentially lower. This is not a problem unique to solar, but it's a serious consideration when attempting to understand the real cost of a kWh over a 30 year time period.
Rule #1, Don't lose money. Rule #2, read rule #1. - WB.
