Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Doc328]

The figure you posted was the ADCS-ADL from the 2a study not ADAS-Cog. The ADAS-Cog was not part of the 2a outcomes. They did MMSE but, alas, there is no similar figure for MMSE. Converting from MMSE to ADAS-Cog is not the same as actually measuring it. Theoretically group 3 would be equivalent to the pooled 30/50 mg cohorts. At this point and with a 500 patient 2b complete, I don't think there is much need to bring p the 20 patients in the 2a included in that paper who managed to make it 3 years.

I had also expected the 50 vs placebo and 30mg vs placebo data to be reported. However, according to posts from people who attended the annual shareholder meeting, the 2 cohorts were similar (perhaps due to many dropouts from 50 mg we don't know as n for each cohort never reported). I wonder how the p=0.033 holds up with 1/2 the number of patients (actually I don't wonder as we know what happens to p when n is reduced)

A major disappointment I had with p2b/3 TLR is that we were anticipating the 50-mg group as the targeted treatment (group 2 curve) but the company reported the treated group (between groups 3 and 4) instead. It lowered the efficacy from halting the progression in 48 weeks (group 2 curve) to a 27%-45% reduction in decline (group 3-4). However, the p2b/3 results are consistent with p2a.