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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 29, 2023

NY Gold Futures closed today at 19604 and is trading up about 7.34% for the year from last year's settlement of 18262. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 1999 moving into a major high for 2020, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2022 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 16183. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 2020, which tends to warn that the 2020 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Notwithstanding, 2022 was, in fact, an outside reversal to the downside closing lower than the previous year. Nonetheless, we have elected all four intermediate Yearly Bullish Reversals to date from the turning point of 2022 from this 2022 reaction low.

Curiously, the market has been only consolidating since that 2022 low and has been unable to exceed the high of that year while holding the low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 19588 and overhead resistance forming above at 19671. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 1st at 20854, which was up 26 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. We have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 2.417% in a stark panic type decline.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 17th reaching 19898 failed to exceed the previous high of 20854 made back during the week of May 1st. That rally amounted to only three typical reaction weeks. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

After closing above last year's low of 16733.

Critical support still underlies this market at 18708 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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