The company will be sold towards the end of 2024, or early 2025. They need to get the BRAVE results (which I suspect will come sometime in Q1 2024). And they need to make more progress in Europe. Also, I think they have some other things up their sleeves WRT MND-2119 and/or FDC in Europe, either of which is still going to take some time to bring to fruition. And I don't even think they need to be selling those, per se. They just need to be able to prove to a BP the opportunity that those present. And finally, I think they might find some sort of solution in Germany. I don't know what that is, but I'm not sure they would have mentioned it if they didn't think there was some opportunity there.
And unless BRAVE results are outstanding (at minimum, statistically significant), I think they get sold for $12.50 - $15.00.
I honestly think the low end is $10/share. That's ~$4B, and implies roughly $1B in annual revenues (@3.5x sales). This would presume ALL countries are under reimbursement and selling, and we have not salvaged much more in the U.S. This would be the worst-case scenario.
But as we can all agree, Amarin is NOT a simple case. Most startups get sold prior to commercialization, and are sold on the "potential". Unfortunately for us, we have been commercialized for 11 years, and have annualized revenues of $260M (and shrinking) to show for it. So it's an uphill battle. Throw in the unknowns of BRAVE, MND-2119, FDC, generics, Germany, etc. and there are a LOT of moving parts.
