Something more important: Here we are 7 weeks after ASM and no foundry partnership announcement..there is a reason folks. how can they be commercial-ready if they are still working on full wafer poling, and/or the ALD process, and or reliability testing on packaged devices which at best have just started (350 hours)? It makes no sense. There won't be a foundry partnership announcement in 2023 IMO.
Something less important: 2 days in a row - large drop on volume - I guess it could be a large short, but it also could be selling by the financiers who keep things going here.
SMITH is right: none of these daily fluctuations are of any signficance to someone with a long term horizon.
Good news will move the stock up, and lack of it will move it down, but it also follows tech stocks with amplified moves both ways due to the higher level of uncertainty from a lack of revenue-generating operations.
The market cap of $900 million for a company without revenues shows that the market thinks there is a real possibility the company will succeed. But the very high short position suggests there is plenty of doubt. While algos and mms can create volume at will - which some define as manipulation - I believe volume manipulation is NOT price manipulation - no one is making me or anyone else buy or sell at a given price...so unless there is some collusion going on by big players there is no real manipulation in the price.
Back to what is more important: The issue longs care about is progress on the business front. They believe the company is on-track or nearly so with the timeline. I have strong doubts about that. At the least the company has been very quiet about how things are going with the foundries, and longs rely on the same old things they have in the past which often turns out to have been wrong: smiles, words of encouragement from management, slides in presentations which are missing detail but interpreted to be 'nuggets' by some, 'any smidgen of hope within the industry that they are thinking at all about polymers, etc.. I think things are going far slower than these smidgens might suggest to some, and the reason for that is simply that the company hasn't validated any of these hopes when they likely could without breaking an NDA or revealing anything that compromises their competitive position..
The vague commercial announcement made is almost for certain NOT a sign of success with one of their foundries. That's key. Why then did they refuse to review last years goals, and set new ones? I think the answer is pretty obvious: They don't want us or the competition to know that things are moving very slowly - maybe even in limobo - with the foundries -- they still working on full wafer poling, still working on the ALD process, and still hoping to prove scaleability to the foundries. Until then they are pursuing the other 2 prongs: Minor "commercialization' projects with Polariton using their goo, and special stand alone modulators produced in their own lab for data centers, per KCC's bizarre post saying that's coming first. The warehouse expansion -- people want to think it's for moving forward with proving to foundries they are 'ready', but their own letter says much of it will be used to produce the goo to support the goo commercialization (ie Polariton IMO), and KCC for whatever reason thinks the majority of it will be used for the stand alone modulators produced in their own lab.
Due to all of the above, I think the reliability testing just started recently on packaged results - very well may not be on foundry packaged transceivers, but on their own in-house lab-produced packaged modulators, and that the foundry progress is taking way longer than hoped..
That's where logic leads me...
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AI
