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gdl

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Alias Born 12/18/2012

gdl

Re: None

Thursday, 07/13/2023 1:49:21 PM

Thursday, July 13, 2023 1:49:21 PM

Post# of 5521
Obstinate aren't we. The BEAR can't watch this unfold and the bull is scared it might not be real. Take what is given you. i stated last week this will be an all up week. Inflation data is coming down some more. Dollar is NOW favorable to stocks and yields are dropping. NOW lets add a pathetic earnings season expectations that has got to beat. The ONLY (2) things that can derail us is a surprise earnings or future projections in mass -or- external calamity worth trillions.

We have BROKEN OUT! Extended valuations and flat earnings this quarter will keep the naysayers in happy mode. I am adamant that such a tight labor market and recent escalation of strikes is reminiscent of the 70's when inflation lasted TOO LONG to ignore. I was thrown back by the weak response from the Chinese consumer. they are hording disposable money in the range of 1.7 TRILLION! But the Chinese government has no restraint in policy and quick turnaround. they are cutting and stimulating. it should result in a spike move BEFORE the end of this year. it will cause havoc on prices and world inflation.

I can NOW see how a final setup for a monumental crash can happen. It needs current feel good news dismissing anything that can derail it till it actually does get derailed. the long strong Bull run leafing into the Pandemic was a classic example. Nothing was going to spoil a one sided view.

My only concern is that this last stage isn't going to spike in a steep trajectory. the steady trend line, draw a line thru it, type of move will not set up for a big crash. We need a hyperbolic move from here lasting 2 months.

7/17 is a defined turn date but that can just mean a shallow retrace as opposed to anything more damaging. I personally see NOTHING this month that can derail a spike move higher. Maybe i am wrong? we shall see.. this bear is playing dead for now.

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