Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[bradford86]

not sure i understand the big emphasis of these warrants. they would be valuable if the spspsa liquidation preference was less than the equity post restructuring, but the government's own estimates of its spspa fair value vs gross investments reveal that even the government does not believe that it can get face value here and will be taking a haircut to its high water mark that keeps going up.
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2022/notes-to-the-financial-statements8.pdf

with this in mind, you have a haircut spspa restructuring

the cbo report points out that in a haircut restructuring it thinks the warrants are worth less than $100M
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-08/56496-GSE.pdf

I just don't see the warrants as mattering that much, if at all.