I think the math checks out, and I agree it's unrealistic to assume a 1:76 dividend, though the example in today's PR suggests that's how it might work. I thought I had enough disclaimers, but the point was it shouldn't be better than 1:76 ish in the perfect case, and likely nowhere near that strong a rate.
VIRO and BGEN need operating cash. SAGA shareholders are entitled to additional shares in a business combination scenario. ENZC preferred shareholders may get shares. Other unmentioned parties may get shares. Some cash/shares might be set aside as equity for later. The valuation is actually $10 per share of SAGA, not $12 like I used in my example. All of this is part of the $450M "value" of the proposed transaction; ENZC commons aren't the only ones to be accounted.
I'd expect a dividend rate lower than 1:76. Once the dividend rate is known, I'd expect ENZC share price to equalize quickly. If the SAGA deal closes, I'd expect ENZC's share price to plummet, since ENZC's IP, progress, and management team will have moved to SAGA. However, todays PR clarifies ENZC would still be looking to exist as a company, own most of SAGA's equity initially, and craft a new business strategy for RBMD -- so I don't see ENZC's ticker going to zero.
Hopefully the dividend is high enough ENZC shareholders don't lose any value during the transition; and in fact the Make-Whole provision is very promising; they might still find a way to profit from their ENZC shares; and the SAGA shares may or may not be locked in for a year or two before they could be sold. Probably some decent plays here, but not without risk.
