There are some here who want to convince me that Anavex is a poor investment, and these are the reasons why:
1. Dr. Missling is intentionally scamming investors by slow-rolling bad data
2. Dr. Missling is attending investor road shows with the sole intention of serving fund managers a sh*t sandwich.
3. Dr. Jin chose Anavex because it was the highest bidder and he couldn't care less about the company or its pipeline
4. The data is average at best, cherry-picked, lipstick on a pig, etc. At worst, it's manipulated with changing goalposts but either way the company cannot be trusted.
Here's what the short sellers are not mentioning or challenging in their posts
1. Anavex's robust balance sheet
2. The value of the rare pediatric priority review voucher
3. The limited number of shares issued relative to other P3 biotechs
4. Dr. Missling recently chose stock over cash
5. Dr. Jin's credentials or expertise
They say that Dr. Jin is just taking a pay day, but they don't provide any evidence for why I should believe them over the quote that Dr. Jin said in the PR:
"Anavex has a cutting-edge technology that can make a great deal of difference to those patients. I believe I can make a substantial contribution at this very important time in the Company’s transition towards commercialization.”
Until I have reason to believe otherwise, I'm going to trust Dr. Jin over a message board stranger. That's what 27 years of FDA experience affords in terms of credibility. Why shouldn't I believe him, and why shouldn't I be as excited as he appears to be?
To use a sports analogy, Dr. Jin is a home run free agent acquisition and those are never cheap. Sometimes they turn out to be busts and other times they help struggling teams win championships. But the immediate benefit to any big splash free agent signing is credibility. The long-term benefit is hopefully more than that, but right now Anavex needs to build credibility for when it does release the data. My guess is we'll see a PR and journal publication in Q4.
More importantly, my plan as of now is to hold until this potentially becomes a preventative treatment. Doing some back of the napkin math, if the daily global cost averaged to 40 cents/day, and 1 billion people globally took it from say, age 60+, that's something like $146 billion in annual gross revenue and all of a sudden I am venturing into WGT territory so I'll stop the day dream here.
