jfr1611, yes I was referring to the Kite and Juno buyouts a few years ago.
I think an estimate of Northwest Bio’s potential values, based on approvals for various other solid tumor cancers, has been posted both here and on Twitter before. I don’t have that, but maybe someone else can post it for you.
I think it’s premature to speculate on that, which is why I just referenced the other CAR-T cell therapy companies as a starting value. Total available market is major factor in estimating value, which is why I said that the value of Northwest Bio should be higher than those companies. How much higher? The total available market for a standard-of-care Glioblastoma treatment for both newly diagnosed and recurrent, is certainly much larger (at least 2x) than for 2nd or 3rd line lymphoma, myeloma, or leukemia, that those other CAR-T cell therapies are approved for. So just based on the Glioblastoma market alone, I think it may be worth double the value of those other two buyouts.
DCVax’s mechanism of action that Dr. Bosch demonstrated conclusively at ASCO was for Glioblastoma, which is probably the most difficult cancer to treat. In theory, the mechanism of action should apply to other cancers, and even to other diseases. It seems probable, maybe even very likely, that DCVax will have a much higher response rate in other cancers that are not as deadly as Glioblastoma. This has been shown anecdotally to be true in some compassionate-use patients, but it still hasn’t been trialed in those other cancers yet. DCVax-Direct, which has basically the same mechanism of action, has been evaluated in a small, phase I basket trial, that was primarily to demonstrate safety and feasibility, but it did extend survival in a variety of (10) cancers. So yes, perhaps it’s a little more than just theory.
A Big Pharma company like Merck, Bristol Myers, Roche, or Gilead, would certainly understand what the implications are with DCVax’s mechanism of action, but I’m not sure how they might value it at this time, given what has actually been clinically proven. I think it’s probably fair to say that they would attempt to minimize its value, in any buyout negotiations though.
Ultimately, I guess the value is whatever someone is willing to pay, and what Northwest Bio is willing to accept. I also continue to wonder what that number is.
