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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 1, 2023

S&P 500 Cash Index opened above the previous high and closed above it as well warning of a bullish posture right now. This market is above all our indicators at this time reflecting it is moving higher over recent activity. It closed today at 445038 and is trading up about 15% for the year from last year's settlement of 383950.

At present, this market has been rising for 8 months going into July suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Tue. May 7, 2024. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the S&P 500 Cash Index included a rally from 1974 moving into a major high for 2022, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 440015.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 26th at 445848, which was up 15 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 13th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 445848 to 432808. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of June 26th reaching 445848 has exceeded the previous high of 421291 made back during the week of May 15th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

After closing above last year's low of 366271.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 8 months since the low established back in October 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 423300 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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