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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 24, 2023

S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 434833 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's settlement of 383950. As of now, this market has been rising for 2 months going into June reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 444847 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 404828. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 423110.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Tue. May 7, 2024. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the S&P 500 Cash Index included a rally from 1974 moving into a major high for 2022, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 423243 and overhead resistance forming above at 434931. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 12th at 444847, which was up 13 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 13th. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 2.408% in a stark panic type decline.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of June 12th has exceeded the previous high of 421291 made back during the week of May 15th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 380886 made the week of March 13th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

After closing above last year's low of 366271.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 7 months since the low established back in October 2022.

The market is trading some 2.77% percent above the last high 423110 from which we did originally obtain one sell signal from that event established during May. Long-Term critical support still underlies this market at 416430 and only a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a break of the current uptrend. At this time, the market is holding and is trading above last month's high as well.

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