Thursday, June 29, 2023 12:54:24 PM
I've attached a chart of the SPX from 2003-2013. As you can see there was a massive recovery in 2009-early 2010. After that there were two drawdowns in the summer of 2010 and 2011. It wasn't until the summer of 2013 that the SPX reached a higher level than it had seen in 2007.
As we all noted at the time, October 2022 was very likely the bottom for this current bear. Since then the SPX has moved up over 25%. The scale is different than the GFC but I don't expect the patterns to be much different. There should be at least one more strong draw down. Maybe not until next year as more people take on higher cost mortgages, pay back student loans and begin to ease-up on new revolving debt. Also the job market is easing as debt becomes more expensive.
If one wanted to argue for a continuing bull market out of October it may be the IRA that saves the day. Those hundreds of billions in spending are just beginning. Interesting times.
As we all noted at the time, October 2022 was very likely the bottom for this current bear. Since then the SPX has moved up over 25%. The scale is different than the GFC but I don't expect the patterns to be much different. There should be at least one more strong draw down. Maybe not until next year as more people take on higher cost mortgages, pay back student loans and begin to ease-up on new revolving debt. Also the job market is easing as debt becomes more expensive.
If one wanted to argue for a continuing bull market out of October it may be the IRA that saves the day. Those hundreds of billions in spending are just beginning. Interesting times.
Rule #1, Don't lose money. Rule #2, read rule #1. - WB.
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