NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[kabunushi]

By my calculation, the annual dilution rate from issuing new shares at .65/share is about 5%. That's not nothing, it's a -5% rate of return if the shares remain at .65. But in my view, this is scarcely worth a ton of moaning.

In my view, in a year we will most likely see RA approval in the UK at a minimum, resulting at a conservative estimate, in a fair value share price of $2 or better. I.e. investors can, even if no deals are done in the meantime, likely anticipate 300% ROI within a year or less, at the cost of a -5% dilution. Of course, there is a risk that the pps could fall and it could fall considerably, but IMO the much-touted dilution cost at .65/shr alone is far smaller than the whining here would seem to indicate if one believes that positive events will more likely than not unfold and that the pps will, in turn, appreciate commensurately.

BTW OP's statement of $20M/Q cash burn is just wrong. Per the latest 10Q it was less than 12.5M in Q1, in other words, a bit less than $50M on an annual basis. My number for that comes from the statement of cash flows, namely $11,239,000 net cash used plus 933 stock-based compensation for services. If you disagree, please show your work.

So we get about 75M new shares ($50M cash burn @ .65/share) in a year, as the numerator over 1.5 billion shares now outstanding on a fully diluted basis. That seems to me to be about a 5% annual dilution rate. Is this the tempest in a teapot that some people here are whining about? What am I missing?