You mean like Witch hunt? Dictator trump and his GOP Politburo? No, I'll keep fighting that as i have fought irrational market behavior. the long ago trillion dollar bet that went bad placed a condition on future bad bets. The street DEMANDED rate cuts this year! Why? because without it we get many more bad bets. This is like a Pandemic that was known and excused for being just a mild inconvenience. The street already decided wasn't going to cause a problem. There is NO WAY the FEDS reduce rates anytime soon. the odds favor more rate hikes just based on an historic tight labor market. A 40 year Pavlovian condition on disinflation against a 2 year spike in inflation?
Mark this down! Many EXTERNAL implosions will result for such a high short term bond yields. Greed never goes out of style. Everyone TODAY is convinced we saw the peak in inflation and it has only one way to go. It will be the biggest mistake of the century. This as everyone is convinced the FED is lying about futur rate hikes and not on pausing for now. They see what they want and disregard the rest. Watch WAGES carefully next time. Unions, though a much smaller component than the 80's is demanding and getting matched wage increases. Social Security has to match that rise also.
I warned 2 years ago that disinflation is cyclical and the 40 years is over. No one believes disinflation is not permanent due to the new Paradigm of our economy. Like the 1920's I guess. I laughed at the coined term "transitory". EARNINGS! Better spike up and soon or the assumed P/E gest a multiple not seen in a very long time. We have now gone thru a trillion dollar run on banks in ONE DAY! It was here and gone in the daily news like a street accident. No ramifications, no biggie! the FED takes care of all accidents. Not a blip in the stock market reaction. You can call that NORMAL, i call it extreme exuberance and complacency. All things are handled and instantly fixed.
We will be going thru a 2 to 3 decade economy much worse than the 70's. Laws of gravity have not yet been negated. But like all things it seems to never get here. When it does we will see it move in slow motion never getting out of it.
