Ms. Market is like Mike Tyson...everyone's got a plan until she punches them in the mouth..:).
With interest rates up, bonds and like products are back in favor. Advisors are dusting off the 60/40 allocation. In my experience, this does not portend the return of a bull market.
One basic metric I use is market P/E. In the past we considered ~15X as fair value on the SPX but since the fast growing tech giants have become such a large part of its overall value it's more like 20X fair value with a top between 24-25X. Of course, during or coming out of, a recession the P/E is skewed upward, sometime dramatically.
Looking at the peaks at the end of 2019 and 2021 and comparing it to today's market, I see similar issues with regard to P/E and in today's case a less solid economic argument for P/E growth. The SPX P/E peaked at 24.4 in December of 2019 and an even higher 27.3 in December of 2021. After Friday's close the current SPX P/E is 24.8. Could it move higher? Of course. Given the outlook for earnings over the next two quarters, is this fair value? In my opinion, unlikely.
The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. - WB