santafe, Thanks. What worries me is the mountain of Derivatives piled on top of all the underlying assets. That's what turned the 2008 mortgage problems into a mega collapse, requiring unprecedented bailouts of everything, including the European counterparty holders to the various Derivatives bets. The cleanup tab was reportedly $16 Trillion. The amount of Derivatives back then was estimated to be over 1 Quadrillion dollars (yikes), and estimates today are even higher, and they are apparently even more concentrated in fewer hands.
In addition to the recent regional bank crisis, commercial / office real estate problems, debt/GDP near 130 (gulp), there is the corporate 'leveraged loan' phenomenon, another ticking time bomb (with Derivatives piled on top).
The Fed's balance sheet is still near $9 trillion, leaving them close to being tapped out should another 2008 type mega bailout be required. As I understand it, their solution would be for the IMF to issue trillions in SDRs/Special Drawing Rights to supplement the Fed's liquidity, which would basically amount to a 'bailout' of the tapped out Federal Reserve.
Let's hope this doesn't happen anytime soon, but your reluctance to own stocks right now makes sense. Hopefully in the period ahead all we get is a recession and nothing more dire.
---
