Monday, May 29, 2023 11:16:30 PM
Week Ahead: May 30, 2023 - QQQ, NFP, AI
* Monday - Markets were closed for Memorial Day.
* Tuesday - Housing Index @ 9am, Consumer Confidence @ 10am, FOMC Barkin @ 1pm
* Wednesday - ADP @ 8:15am, JOLTS at 10am (!!)
* Thursday - Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, ISM @ 10am
* Friday - NFP @ 8:30am (!!!)
* All times US/Eastern
QQQ blew out my high end by a lot, pushed on to 348 on Friday. Big confidence on the back of tech and debt ceiling hope. Impressive.
Technicals - QQQ daily chart is now properly overbought and is setup for a sell the news event. Weekly says this is it at 350, so pop on Monday - then drop?
Current positions:
AAPL 170p October 20 @ 9.30 (trimmed)
KRE 38p Dec 15 @ 4.95
NQ short @ 14400 (trying one more time..)
AI 35c June 30 @ 5.70
BBAI @ 2.37 (starter on Friday) - needs research
INOD @ 11.40 (starter on Friday) - needs research
Translated: Long AI, short broad tech and banks.
Debt ceiling - they’ve reached an agreement in principle, which means it’s mostly just paperwork at this point. I don’t see it getting blocked despite some additional political theater. The terms we know so far here are https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/whats-debt-ceiling-deal-biden-mccarthy-are-negotiating-2023-05-26/
I may be wrong, but I do think this will be a sell the news event, as early as Tuesday. The technicals are hot, this optimistic event is now mostly resolved, it’s a potential liquidity drain, and we’ve got JPow looking at us with a 25bps hike (63% chance now). I thought the Fed Trade was over, but the PCE and similar are keeping it alive.
I am shifting more towards specific stocks than macro/QQQ/SPY trading. I’ve been doing well in the specific stocks I’ve traded lately - AMD, AI, etc - less so in the indices. It’s much easier for me to see bullish signs in individual than overall macro right now.
AI (stock) is most interesting at the moment since it’s got the ticker symbol, is in ‘the’ space, and has ER on 5/31. It’s also got some top-tier clients. I traded it on Friday and I plan to exit my main position prior to the ER (Wednesday AH) and let some lottos ride.
BBAI, INOD I’m researching, just have starter positions in for now. PLTR is on my radar, too.
I’ll be posting some individual due diligence on a few companies I like this week.
Aside from AI, I remain a market bear and think we just saw the final hurrah (for now) of this monster bear market rally. I think we’ll see QQQ 300 before we say QQQ 400.
* Monday - Markets were closed for Memorial Day.
* Tuesday - Housing Index @ 9am, Consumer Confidence @ 10am, FOMC Barkin @ 1pm
* Wednesday - ADP @ 8:15am, JOLTS at 10am (!!)
* Thursday - Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, ISM @ 10am
* Friday - NFP @ 8:30am (!!!)
* All times US/Eastern
QQQ blew out my high end by a lot, pushed on to 348 on Friday. Big confidence on the back of tech and debt ceiling hope. Impressive.
Technicals - QQQ daily chart is now properly overbought and is setup for a sell the news event. Weekly says this is it at 350, so pop on Monday - then drop?
Current positions:
AAPL 170p October 20 @ 9.30 (trimmed)
KRE 38p Dec 15 @ 4.95
NQ short @ 14400 (trying one more time..)
AI 35c June 30 @ 5.70
BBAI @ 2.37 (starter on Friday) - needs research
INOD @ 11.40 (starter on Friday) - needs research
Translated: Long AI, short broad tech and banks.
Debt ceiling - they’ve reached an agreement in principle, which means it’s mostly just paperwork at this point. I don’t see it getting blocked despite some additional political theater. The terms we know so far here are https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/whats-debt-ceiling-deal-biden-mccarthy-are-negotiating-2023-05-26/
I may be wrong, but I do think this will be a sell the news event, as early as Tuesday. The technicals are hot, this optimistic event is now mostly resolved, it’s a potential liquidity drain, and we’ve got JPow looking at us with a 25bps hike (63% chance now). I thought the Fed Trade was over, but the PCE and similar are keeping it alive.
I am shifting more towards specific stocks than macro/QQQ/SPY trading. I’ve been doing well in the specific stocks I’ve traded lately - AMD, AI, etc - less so in the indices. It’s much easier for me to see bullish signs in individual than overall macro right now.
AI (stock) is most interesting at the moment since it’s got the ticker symbol, is in ‘the’ space, and has ER on 5/31. It’s also got some top-tier clients. I traded it on Friday and I plan to exit my main position prior to the ER (Wednesday AH) and let some lottos ride.
BBAI, INOD I’m researching, just have starter positions in for now. PLTR is on my radar, too.
I’ll be posting some individual due diligence on a few companies I like this week.
Aside from AI, I remain a market bear and think we just saw the final hurrah (for now) of this monster bear market rally. I think we’ll see QQQ 300 before we say QQQ 400.
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