Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

Dew- Thanks for your comments and I agree HEPA is not investable at this point.

I found some time and listened to the cc as well. I found management to be disingenuous taking so much time to overview the NASH market etc. Then after taking so much time to "frame the results" the QA piece was concerning as they only took questions from 3 analysts. The third analyst was the only one who asked tough questions and that was telling:

• Poorly answered the question on data quality (lots of data points had a p value of less than 0.05). Specifically, when asked to provide color on how far away from 0.05 - the reply was "I don't worship 0.05" and in really bad form. Then the question was not answered which in reality told you it wasn't far away.
  
• When asked about "the performance of the 150 mg was all over the place"- the response basically threw shade at their own biomarkers saying they needed to do biopsy confirmation in the 2B study to figure this out while noting how small this trial was and the need to take the data in totality. Maybe so but a huge red flag as you already pointed out.
  
• At 40 mins, they noted they were close to the end of the allotted time and decided to end the call early rather than take any more questions.
  

The company passes my #1 criteria of safety on its lead compound (at least for now) and my #4 criteria of market differentiation.

The company fails on my #2 management effectiveness (believability/shareholder sensitivity); #3proven efficacy; #5 financial runway; and #6 risk reward as while the reward might be great on this small company, the risk of a binary negative result is way too high for me.

However, I will continue to watch this company as they are unique and their focus on fibrosis may prove extremely valuable if new data proves their compound works.