Sunday, May 21, 2023 7:06:50 PM
Week Ahead: May 22, 2023 - QQQ 342/330 range
* All week: Fed speakers again.
* Monday - Bullard @ 8:30am, Bostic and Daily around 11am, New Home Sales at 10am
* Tuesday - PMI @ 9:45am, Home Data @ 10am
* Wednesday - Yellen @ 10am, Waller @ 12:45pm, Fed Minutes @ 2pm, NVDA earnings AH
* Thursday - GDP + Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Barkin at 9:45am
* Friday - PCE at 8:30am, UMICH 10am
* All times US/Eastern
QQQ went over my top end estimate from last week of 330. The debt ceiling possible resolution pushed us to new recent highs (338).
Technicals - QQQ daily chart is now overbought on some indicators and is setup for a sell the news event. It may push to 342 on debt ceiling agreement reached, but I think that’s it for now. Weekly says it may have a little air left to 344 max, but then it’s going to come down or at least consolidate.
Current positions:
AAPL 170p October 20 @ 9.60
KRE 38p Dec 15 @ 4.95 (added more last week)
I’ve got some KR calls and WM equity, as well, but nothing exciting.
JPow looked uncomfortable at the last FOMC Q&A and he showed similar discomfort on the Friday panel.
I think there’s still significant risk in the regional banking sector, despite all this resilient talk. We saw some start cracking on the way to 5% and now it’s going to hold there. KRE has already been pounded, but there’s still more to go - even though we’re in the middle of a mechanical bounce (noted last Sunday likely to happen).
I played AMD a few times last week - my biggest gainer of the week. As usual, my only regret was not holding it despite the obvious move on AI excitement. It was just on fire and likely to remain so into NVDA earnings on Wednesday afternoon.
The debt ceiling was not resolved last week, as expected. They gave some hope, market blasted, yanked it on Friday and market barely backed down — it knows they will resolve it despite all this political theater. I’ve read a few tweets and watched a video from CNBC suggesting that when it is resolved, it’s likely to be a sell the news event. The charts are set up for it, for sure. The fundamental case for this is how the liquidity will be drawn out of the market with all the new debt issuance. So, double whammy.
The market indicators (DXY, TNX) are aligning back to be bad news is bad news and good news is good news - which is a lot easier to trade.
Overall, I remain a bear - despite the indices currently blasting. The market breadth is weak and not indicative of a new rally, but the final hurrah of a monster bear market rally (which, kudos to the bulls - I didn’t see it lasting this long and cost me).
* All week: Fed speakers again.
* Monday - Bullard @ 8:30am, Bostic and Daily around 11am, New Home Sales at 10am
* Tuesday - PMI @ 9:45am, Home Data @ 10am
* Wednesday - Yellen @ 10am, Waller @ 12:45pm, Fed Minutes @ 2pm, NVDA earnings AH
* Thursday - GDP + Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Barkin at 9:45am
* Friday - PCE at 8:30am, UMICH 10am
* All times US/Eastern
QQQ went over my top end estimate from last week of 330. The debt ceiling possible resolution pushed us to new recent highs (338).
Technicals - QQQ daily chart is now overbought on some indicators and is setup for a sell the news event. It may push to 342 on debt ceiling agreement reached, but I think that’s it for now. Weekly says it may have a little air left to 344 max, but then it’s going to come down or at least consolidate.
Current positions:
AAPL 170p October 20 @ 9.60
KRE 38p Dec 15 @ 4.95 (added more last week)
I’ve got some KR calls and WM equity, as well, but nothing exciting.
JPow looked uncomfortable at the last FOMC Q&A and he showed similar discomfort on the Friday panel.
I think there’s still significant risk in the regional banking sector, despite all this resilient talk. We saw some start cracking on the way to 5% and now it’s going to hold there. KRE has already been pounded, but there’s still more to go - even though we’re in the middle of a mechanical bounce (noted last Sunday likely to happen).
I played AMD a few times last week - my biggest gainer of the week. As usual, my only regret was not holding it despite the obvious move on AI excitement. It was just on fire and likely to remain so into NVDA earnings on Wednesday afternoon.
The debt ceiling was not resolved last week, as expected. They gave some hope, market blasted, yanked it on Friday and market barely backed down — it knows they will resolve it despite all this political theater. I’ve read a few tweets and watched a video from CNBC suggesting that when it is resolved, it’s likely to be a sell the news event. The charts are set up for it, for sure. The fundamental case for this is how the liquidity will be drawn out of the market with all the new debt issuance. So, double whammy.
The market indicators (DXY, TNX) are aligning back to be bad news is bad news and good news is good news - which is a lot easier to trade.
Overall, I remain a bear - despite the indices currently blasting. The market breadth is weak and not indicative of a new rally, but the final hurrah of a monster bear market rally (which, kudos to the bulls - I didn’t see it lasting this long and cost me).
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