The Doctor ------------------------ Column by Juan Carlos Guajardo: "Will the national lithium strategy work?" Opinion by Juan Carlos Guajardo
After a long and excessive wait, which has meant the country reducing its participation in the world market from 45% to only 30%, what Chile proposes for lithium was known. It is a complex strategy that can be summed up as seeking to increase production, but with a pre-eminent role for the State, especially in the key salt flats. It also seeks to establish the bases to generate new industries in the country and to do so with environmental criteria. It will work?
Leaving aside the forms, such as the fact that the announcement has been confusing and still has issues to be defined -which in itself already undermines its objectives-, the most probable result will be rather lukewarm, especially when compared to the potential that could be have taken advantage
The two best salt flats in Chile, Atacama and Maricunga, remain in the hands of Codelco. Enali (National Lithium Company), if it ever sees the light of day, will be a supporting player in the role that Codelco will build without the need for any law. And Codelco will negotiate, probably well, to make agreements viable with SQM, the main objective of the strategy, and with other companies, resulting in greater production.
What is worrying here is the speed with which this happens and the distracting effects that it could generate for Codelco. In any case, this is an opportunity to improve your results affected by the problems in your copper projects.
In the small salt flats, where it does not seem that there will be major restrictions on private investment, it is possible that some projects will be developed, although their size will be rather modest. One cannot fail to mention that there were other ways to increase production and even increase revenue for the State. A tender for the resources that SQM exploits until 2030, together with tenders for new areas of the Atacama salt flat, would have been of great global interest. And for other salt flats, a good and solid legal framework with tax levels similar to those already levied on the Atacama salt flat would have triggered several projects quickly.
The desire for productive development downstream, that is, to produce something more than battery-grade lithium carbonate or hydroxide, will occur more than because of the institutions that propose the strategy, because of the instruments that Corfo already has, since its offer to access lithium in better condition and safely is attractive and already bearing fruit, as seen with BYD's entry.
And finally, environmental care seeks to force the use of direct extraction technology, which is not yet available on an industrial scale, although its arrival is only a matter of time. The requirement could effectively accelerate the development of this technology, although the State will need to accompany it with the necessary permits.
There are two factors to take into account. The strategy, in practice, is based only on administrative decisions, which, by not depending on laws, is left to the discretion of governments that change every 4 years. And there is no shortage of voices abroad who fear that this lithium strategy is a step to later do the same with copper. It is important that Chile dispel any suspicion, since this type of perception -founded or not- can become a serious problem for investment. This is why the discussion of the new constitution is an opportunity to strengthen the bases of mining in Chile, with more certainty, and thereby ensure its attractiveness and viability.
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