The S+P 500 has been surprisingly resilient, and a lot of money sits on the sidelines. The chart pattern looks bullish, almost an ascending triangle, but until key issues are resolved (debt ceiling) the market is reluctant to move up and get through the 4200 level. Once above 4200 the new uptrend of higher high / higher lows (since the Oct low) will be fairly undeniable.
In the bullish scenario, the next development would be resolution of debt ceiling, continued progress on inflation, a Fed pause in June, triggering a decent summer rally. But.. lots of landmines remain, potential for more banking problems, a slowing economy in the Fall, eroding corporate profits, plus geopolitical unknowns, etc.
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