Sunday, May 14, 2023 10:35:51 PM
Week Ahead: May 15, 2023 - QQQ 330/320 range
* All week: Fed speakers - too many to list, just know they’re all over the place this week.
* Monday - Empire State Manu Index @ 8:30am
* Tuesday - Retail Sales @ 8:30am & Housing @ 10am
* Wednesday - Housing @ 8:30am - this is quietest day of the week!
* Thursday - Philly & Jobless Claims at 8:30am
* Friday - JPow in the wild at 11am - typically bullish
* All times US/Eastern
I closed out my NQ short on Friday for a loss (much less than it was the day before..) because it was clouding my thinking and stopping me from doing other trades - I’m going to make it a intraday trader only and not hold it overnight, if possible. I added to my KRE and AAPL puts. Played VWAP trade long on NQ - that felt great.
Technicals - QQQ daily chart remains slightly bullish. It’s above the middle of the regression channel I drew (see below). Weekly says the trend continues….somehow.
Current positions:
AAPL 170p October 20 @ 9.60
KRE 38p Dec 15 @ 5.20
I’ve got some KR calls and WM equity, as well, but nothing exciting.
I keep thinking about how uncomfortable JPow was at the last FOMC Q&A. This man is normally smooth as jazz music. What was on his mind that he didn’t or couldn’t tell us? I’m a bear, so it’s easy to run wild.
Financial conditions are too loose still and despite the headline CPI being under the magical 5%, it wasn’t a good print. It was OK. https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data
There’s huge risk to the banking sector. KRE has already been pounded, but there’s still more to go - even if we see a mechanical short covering bounce ( may have started on Friday afternoon). I’d actually rather go directly short a few banks instead of the ETF, so I’ll probably hold the puts I have and add a few specific banks once I identify them. This is the trade I’m most confident in right now.
As to the Fed speakers this week - there’s just too many of them. It’s hard to really get a sense of situation from them when they’re all yapping. JPow will matter on Friday though. I’ll post a link to his live talk once it’s available.
I do not expect the debt ceiling to get resolved this week. They will inevitably take it right down to the wire like always. Need that drama and press coverage. This will continue to weigh on the market and start dragging it down the closer we get and we’ll get a nice pop when it’s resolved.
Overall, I remain a bear - indexes are proving more irrational than I am willing to tolerate, so I’m going to find some specific companies to focus on. I otherwise don't see any clear trades yet this week.
* All week: Fed speakers - too many to list, just know they’re all over the place this week.
* Monday - Empire State Manu Index @ 8:30am
* Tuesday - Retail Sales @ 8:30am & Housing @ 10am
* Wednesday - Housing @ 8:30am - this is quietest day of the week!
* Thursday - Philly & Jobless Claims at 8:30am
* Friday - JPow in the wild at 11am - typically bullish
* All times US/Eastern
I closed out my NQ short on Friday for a loss (much less than it was the day before..) because it was clouding my thinking and stopping me from doing other trades - I’m going to make it a intraday trader only and not hold it overnight, if possible. I added to my KRE and AAPL puts. Played VWAP trade long on NQ - that felt great.
Technicals - QQQ daily chart remains slightly bullish. It’s above the middle of the regression channel I drew (see below). Weekly says the trend continues….somehow.
Current positions:
AAPL 170p October 20 @ 9.60
KRE 38p Dec 15 @ 5.20
I’ve got some KR calls and WM equity, as well, but nothing exciting.
I keep thinking about how uncomfortable JPow was at the last FOMC Q&A. This man is normally smooth as jazz music. What was on his mind that he didn’t or couldn’t tell us? I’m a bear, so it’s easy to run wild.
Financial conditions are too loose still and despite the headline CPI being under the magical 5%, it wasn’t a good print. It was OK. https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data
There’s huge risk to the banking sector. KRE has already been pounded, but there’s still more to go - even if we see a mechanical short covering bounce ( may have started on Friday afternoon). I’d actually rather go directly short a few banks instead of the ETF, so I’ll probably hold the puts I have and add a few specific banks once I identify them. This is the trade I’m most confident in right now.
As to the Fed speakers this week - there’s just too many of them. It’s hard to really get a sense of situation from them when they’re all yapping. JPow will matter on Friday though. I’ll post a link to his live talk once it’s available.
I do not expect the debt ceiling to get resolved this week. They will inevitably take it right down to the wire like always. Need that drama and press coverage. This will continue to weigh on the market and start dragging it down the closer we get and we’ll get a nice pop when it’s resolved.
Overall, I remain a bear - indexes are proving more irrational than I am willing to tolerate, so I’m going to find some specific companies to focus on. I otherwise don't see any clear trades yet this week.
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