Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

I'm Awaiting Anavex's Competition

Don't be too quick to dismiss what other companies will figure out once they, too, pivot their attention toward novel approaches as we're seeing with Anavex, SAVA, and many other startups that have ditched plaque theory.

Thank you for this cautionary note. Well taken.

Indeed, if some other drug turns up that treats or prevents Alzheimer's as successfully, and as inexpensively and with no side effects as blarcamesine, Anavex will have real competition. But to suppress Anavex's blarcamesine revenues, this new drug will have to, somehow, gain market share. Because blarcamesine is so easily administered (a daily pill), and has no severe or persisting side effects, the new drug could capture market share from Anavex only by a reduced price. Even then, because blarcamesine will be recognized as the drug that so wonderfully solved society's Alzheimer's problem, there will be no strong impulse for the majority to switch over to the new drug.

But even if that were to happen, personally I will have been markedly rewarded for holding my few thousand AVXLs for about a decade. But none of these projections have considered how Anavex 3-71 will play out for Anavex and its shareholders. Based on the known (to me) science of Anavex 3-71, it is destined to successfully replace blarcamesine, and to also treat and prevent a host of CNS and other neurodevelopmental disorders. Other diseases and conditions, too.

I'm convinced (but make no personal decisions on my conjectures) that other drugs in the Anavex pipeline will supplant blarcamesine, and with their treating and preventing a broad spectrum of difficult, otherwise recalcitrant diseases, Anavex Life Sciences Corp will a major, global pharmaceutical. Twenty years from now my grandchildren will be asking, "How did Grandad learn about Anavex and buy in so early?" I'm a biologist. I've understood the unique molecular biology of the Anavex molecules since I learned of them. I've read and understood all of the preclinical papers on the Anavex molecules and their propitious and safe activation of the sigma-receptor protein.