Followers | 106 |
Posts | 19456 |
Boards Moderated | 3 |
Alias Born | 04/22/2010 |
Tuesday, May 09, 2023 5:54:58 AM
https://telecomreseller.com/2023/02/14/lightwave-logic-technology-enables-the-existing-fiber-internet-infrastructure-to-perform-3-times-faster-than-current-speeds-podcast/
I don't hear any doubts in Lebby's mind that LWLG is going to become Ubiquitous!!!
LWLG Revenue/Profit Projections!! One Small Foundry, One Customer/Application!!
KCC worked up the following projections, here
I’m going to preface this post by saying this is not my opinion on revenue guidance and it is just a demonstration to calculate potential revenue here with certain facts we know. Of course some assumptions are being made, but they are based on real world observations from industry participants and data provided by LWLG and market reports. What prompted this exercise was seeing a report that Intel had shipped over 2 million 100G silicon photonic transceivers in 2021. I asked myself what if LWLG was suppling all the modulators for those transceivers and how many wafers would need to be produced to supply the required number of modulators. Could small or medium sized foundries produce enough wafers to supply enough modulators for 2 million transceivers? (Yes!!) Could I estimate potential revenue with this information? (Yes!!)
What we know:
Modulator systems are designed on individual die/chips which are contained on a wafer.
A 150mm wafer contains 800 individual chips that are 6x3mm long. I’m using 150mm because that is more common, and I want to demonstrate the potential with a model that does not rely on 300mm. NLM Photonics is shown to be using 150mm wafers from VTT (their “first wafer”). If I counted correctly, they had 605 good die out of 800 or 76% yield.
LWLG’s initial products are targeting 800G.
800G can be reached with 8x100G NRZ or 4x200G PAM4.
LWLG’s patents show 4-8 modulators per transceiver (TxRx).
As TxRx speeds increase, the ratio of optics to electronics increases. At 100G, the optics comprise about 20% of the cost of TxRx. Other costs are test/packaging/assembly, R&D and G&A, operational margin.
Market reports and statements by LWLG say at 800G and beyond, the optics could comprise up to 80% of the cost of a TxRx. Lebby stated in the Q&A at the May 2022 meeting that because their modulator provides much of the benefit to the overall optics, they’ll be able to capture that value and it is not just a cost-plus structure.
Per PhotonicsGuy, the modulator portion of the optics should be at least 15%.
Industry goal is $1 per Gbps, however pricing right now shows up to $10 per Gbps for new 800G offerings.
Low quantity MPW runs cost between $20,000 and $100,000 per wafer depending on type and size. Economies of scale will bring the costs down in the future.
As of the end of 2021, there were 728 hyperscale data centers with half operated by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. At that time, there were over 300 more planned. Each hyperscale DC contains upwards of 100,000 transceivers.
Assumptions:
A 6x3mm die contains a 4-modulator array with the necessary passive waveguides/splitters. Each modulator is .75mm, so size-wise this seems to fit well.
800G will be reached with 4 lanes of 200G PAM4.
Pricing for 800G estimated to be $3.5 per Gbps by 2025, the year of high volume 800G. May or may not be conservative.
Optics account for 65% of the cost of an 800G transceiver. May or may not be conservative.
A cost of $25,000 per wafer. (This is a big unknown, but may be a reasonable assumption and this cost includes design, metals, and other costs on top of a basic wafer.)
LWLG will have 50 employees and a linear growth of burn rate from today equals $3 million monthly burn at mass commercialization. Let’s bump it up to $5 million monthly to account for significant increase in R&D and a buffer.
130,000,000 shares outstanding fully diluted.
Scenario Result:
3,300 wafers are needed to produce enough modulators for two million transceivers. This assumes a 76% good die yield.
Two million 800G transceivers are valued at $5.6 billion. The optics value of those equates to $3.64 billion. The modulator portion equates to $546 million.
It costs LWLG $82,500,000 for the completed wafers. That’s about 85% gross margin (what we expect compared to OLED). We know the actual cost of material is very low and wouldn’t significantly affect COGS.
$462,500,000 in gross profit from selling enough modulators for 2 million transceivers.
$402,000,000 in net earnings from selling enough modulators for 2 million transceivers.
$3 per share in earnings.
This is just one customer and one application.
https://www.reddit.com/r/LWLG/comments/107m7fw/the_potential/
Recent LWLG News
- Lightwave Logic Director Frederick Leonberger to Retire from Board of Directors and Transition to Company's Advisory Board • PR Newswire (US) • 01/03/2025 01:30:00 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/02/2025 10:02:39 PM
- Lightwave Logic to Host Corporate Update Call on January 9, 2025 • PR Newswire (US) • 12/23/2024 01:30:00 PM
- Form 3 - Initial statement of beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/16/2024 09:56:22 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/13/2024 10:05:31 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/12/2024 09:54:46 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/12/2024 09:52:02 PM
- Lightwave Logic to Focus on Execution of its Strategic Plan Under Refreshed Leadership Team; Appoints Yves LeMaitre as CEO and Thomas E. Zelibor as President • PR Newswire (US) • 12/11/2024 01:31:00 PM
- Lightwave Logic Provides Third Quarter 2024 Corporate Update • PR Newswire (US) • 11/13/2024 01:31:00 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/12/2024 10:01:16 PM
- ZenaTech, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZENA) Software Company Acquisition • InvestorsHub NewsWire • 10/23/2024 12:03:31 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 10/04/2024 08:05:31 PM
- ZenaTech, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZENA) To Commence Trading Today • InvestorsHub NewsWire • 10/01/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Lightwave Logic and Polariton to Jointly Showcase Packaged Electro-Optic Polymer Modulators at the European Conference on Optical Communications • PR Newswire (US) • 09/24/2024 08:05:00 PM
- Lightwave Logic Receives 2024 Industry Innovation Award for Hybrid PIC/Optical Integration Platform at the European Conference on Optical Communications (ECOC) • PR Newswire (US) • 09/24/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/09/2024 08:00:09 PM
- LIGHTWAVE LOGIC APPOINTS FORMER DUPONT EXECUTIVE THOMAS CONNELLY, JR. TO BOARD OF DIRECTORS • PR Newswire (US) • 09/09/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Form 3 - Initial statement of beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/13/2024 08:58:16 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/12/2024 08:30:07 PM
- Lightwave Logic Provides Second Quarter 2024 Corporate Update • PR Newswire (US) • 08/12/2024 12:31:00 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/09/2024 08:14:43 PM
- Form 424B5 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(5)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/09/2024 08:10:18 PM
- Form 424B5 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(5)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/09/2024 08:08:25 PM
- Form EFFECT - Notice of Effectiveness • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/06/2024 04:15:14 AM
- Form S-3/A - Registration statement under Securities Act of 1933: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/31/2024 09:05:40 PM
FEATURED Cannabix Technologies Announces Key Hardware Advancements to Marijuana Breathalyzer Technology • Jan 9, 2025 8:49 AM
UAV Corp. (UMAV) Further Reduces Authorized Shares to 500 Million • UMAV • Jan 8, 2025 2:27 PM
Fifty 1 Labs, Inc. Launches Dedicated Website for Shareholders and Investors, Company now current with OTC Markets • CAFI • Jan 7, 2025 9:00 AM
EzFill Holdings, Inc. Successfully Closes Acquisition of Shell Fleet, Accelerating Nationwide Mobile Fueling Expansion • EZFL • Jan 7, 2025 8:35 AM
CGRA Signs Binding Term Sheet to Merge With American Infrastructure Corporation, a Subsidiary of Nasdaq-listed American Resources Corporation (Nasdaq: AREC) • CGRA • Jan 6, 2025 10:31 AM
UAV Corp (UMAV) Working on Securing $1.5 Billion in Contracts and Announces Groundbreaking Partnership with Atlantic Industrial Group • UMAV • Jan 6, 2025 9:26 AM