Sunday, May 07, 2023 11:03:16 PM
Week Ahead: May 8, 2023 - QQQ 328/316 range
* Monday - Wholesale Inventories at 10am, Fed Loan Survey at 2pm (market mover)
* Tuesday - Fed Jefferson at 8:30am, Fed Williams at 12pm
* Wednesday - CPI at 8:30am (market mover)
* Thursday - PPI + Jobless Claims at 8:30am
* Friday - Consumer Sentiment at 10am
* All times US/Eastern
We ended the week just slightly below where we started. We had a 7 point drop during the week, then Friday clawed almost all of it back. It was an action packed week with Fed, Apple, and much more.
I played last week pretty well through Thursday - closed my AAPL puts for a small profit, wrote AAPL puts for a 100% gain, even closed my NQ short for a gain. I took it on the chin though when I went back into NQ short + AAPL 170p (October this time) shortly after the open on Friday. I didn’t see that big of a move incoming, so holding some bags for the moment. I traded the KRE bounce on Friday for some dinner money.
Technicals - QQQ daily chart remains bullish. It’s just above the middle of the regression channel I drew (see below). Weekly says the trend continues.
Current positions: Short NQ @ 13215, holding AAPL 170p 10/20 @ 10. I’ve got two bets on the banking sector - PFBC 40p Dec’23 @ 3 (lotto ticket), and I held KRE 35c over weekend (likely to regret that)
The Fed has paused, not pivoted. A pivot is delusional without something very big breaking first (nothing has yet). JPow was visibly uncomfortable during his speech. He’s a man torn between the huge risks to the banking sector (despite his statement saying otherwise) and inflation that is about to pick back up again.
Financial conditions are loosening again and CPI is very likely to have a nasty print showing an uptick in headline along with sticky/up core. https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data
There’s huge risk to the banking sector. I was actually expecting a rescue plan this weekend, which is why I went long KRE for the weekend. Haven’t seen that yet, so I will look to close out the calls and open up puts - and sit tight and wait for the inevitable.
After CPI print, I’m going to look to close out NQ/QQQ and go long because that’s where the money will flow after more banks go splat - just like it did last time with the preview SVB gave us. At least for now. There’s a reckoning coming on tech, too — can’t keep pushing new highs and show declining growth during inflation — but it looks to get delayed again.
Overall, I remain a bear - but I will trade the channels the market is reliably staying in - for now.
If you missed the Berkshire annual meeting, here’s a great summary:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/06/berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting-live-updates.html
* Monday - Wholesale Inventories at 10am, Fed Loan Survey at 2pm (market mover)
* Tuesday - Fed Jefferson at 8:30am, Fed Williams at 12pm
* Wednesday - CPI at 8:30am (market mover)
* Thursday - PPI + Jobless Claims at 8:30am
* Friday - Consumer Sentiment at 10am
* All times US/Eastern
We ended the week just slightly below where we started. We had a 7 point drop during the week, then Friday clawed almost all of it back. It was an action packed week with Fed, Apple, and much more.
I played last week pretty well through Thursday - closed my AAPL puts for a small profit, wrote AAPL puts for a 100% gain, even closed my NQ short for a gain. I took it on the chin though when I went back into NQ short + AAPL 170p (October this time) shortly after the open on Friday. I didn’t see that big of a move incoming, so holding some bags for the moment. I traded the KRE bounce on Friday for some dinner money.
Technicals - QQQ daily chart remains bullish. It’s just above the middle of the regression channel I drew (see below). Weekly says the trend continues.
Current positions: Short NQ @ 13215, holding AAPL 170p 10/20 @ 10. I’ve got two bets on the banking sector - PFBC 40p Dec’23 @ 3 (lotto ticket), and I held KRE 35c over weekend (likely to regret that)
The Fed has paused, not pivoted. A pivot is delusional without something very big breaking first (nothing has yet). JPow was visibly uncomfortable during his speech. He’s a man torn between the huge risks to the banking sector (despite his statement saying otherwise) and inflation that is about to pick back up again.
Financial conditions are loosening again and CPI is very likely to have a nasty print showing an uptick in headline along with sticky/up core. https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data
There’s huge risk to the banking sector. I was actually expecting a rescue plan this weekend, which is why I went long KRE for the weekend. Haven’t seen that yet, so I will look to close out the calls and open up puts - and sit tight and wait for the inevitable.
After CPI print, I’m going to look to close out NQ/QQQ and go long because that’s where the money will flow after more banks go splat - just like it did last time with the preview SVB gave us. At least for now. There’s a reckoning coming on tech, too — can’t keep pushing new highs and show declining growth during inflation — but it looks to get delayed again.
Overall, I remain a bear - but I will trade the channels the market is reliably staying in - for now.
If you missed the Berkshire annual meeting, here’s a great summary:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/06/berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting-live-updates.html
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