Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[sts66]

The teams are continuing to work smart and hard in a challenging environment. We reported $100,000 in net revenues this quarter, reflecting very early revenues from the U.K. In the U.K.......The revenue results included European product revenue of $0.4 million compared to $0.3 million in Q4 2022, reflecting very early revenues from the U.K.

Well, which is it - $100k from the UK or $400k? If it's $100k, who bought the other $300k of V? Do EU countries build up inventory for their national health care systems? Or does it work like in the US, where private distributors for pharmacy chains buy inventory to have in stock?

In Spain, we've completed a third round of negotiations, which is not uncommon in this market, and the process is ongoing. The next step is another round of negotiations expected in the near term.

In Italy, the team is anticipating additional feedback and minutes from a recent round of negotiations in order to determine the best next steps. The process in France is difficult, and we don't expect a decision this year. In the meantime, we're managing the process diligently as we continue to build scientific support.

Lovely - they're still trying to convince France of the value of V? And they're struggling to settle on a price with Italy and Spain as well? When we got EU approval I claimed we wouldn't see any significant revenues from the EU until late 2023/2024 because it takes so damn long for the individual county negotiations to get completed, and unfortunately it appears my prediction is going to be accurate. And no Germany puts a huge hole in potential EU revs - they're one of the "Big 5", but in normal times (no new austerity program that caused them refuse to pay a fair price for V) they would probably account for ~30% of the Big 5 sales because I don't expect much from Italy and Spain, whenever the hell they get done with them - IOW, I expect EU sales to be significantly lower than we expected 2 yrs ago because Germany is out of the picture.

As far as the impact of the new BOD and Denner's hand picked chairman, it's zero so far, but to be fair, they didn't take over the BOD until late March, so they really didn't have a chance to change what's going on in the EU - from Berg's remarks it appears status quo for the time being, which isn't working.

I searched the CC text you posted for anything related to the Healthnet/Hickma lawsuit and it never came up during the call - WTF is going on there, and why won't they talk about it at all, even in very generic terms? I did find this bit looking around for any mention of it:

We actually even improved one of the major Part D plans, improved the access for VASCEPA here at the end of Q1

Too late to have any impact in 2023 - people pick Part D plans in Nov/Dec of the prior year, and if they picked a plan that didn't cover V, or had onerous copays for it, those patients won't be aware of coverage changes so they won't try to get a scrip again this year. Some insurers send out letters to patients after their semi-annual reviews of their formulary (assuming they do it twice/yr instead of once/yr) to let patients know about changes in coverage, but when I've (rarely) gotten a letter like that I just skim it because coverage for a drug I take or want to take (generic or brand) never changes midyear, so over the last 13 yrs I've had Part D coverage I've learned to not pay much if any attention to those letters if I do get one. And I don't believe I'm an outlier there - most people on Part D probably ignore those letters too, assuming they get one - most Part D plans I've been on (8-9) only changes formularies for the next calendar year, never mid-year.