I agree. I like Joseph because he seems to be a level-headed guy and goes out of his way to search for the truth...and that's why it doesn't make sense for him to be invested if he believes the CEO is lying about the P2b/3 results. (It just goes against his level-headedness)
A few days ago I asked him why he was invested and this was his answer:
"I believe Anavex very likely has a great drug platform. I believe blarcamesine will be approved for Rett after the Excellence trial. I think the Excellence trial will have good results based on the prior Rett trials, and that the big, and widely spread, AF to-do over changed endpoints in Avatar was dishonest or mistaken.
I may nonetheless have considered greatly paring my shares but for Jin joining the company. He doubtless had lots of employment options besides Anavex. It's probable he saw the AD data (though I don't know for a fact whether Anavex legally could share it at the time he was being recruited) and unquestionable he would have reviewed the publicly-available data and analyses of the earlier trials for all indications before accepting a position. I don't think someone with his background, options, and expertise would join a company that didn't have a drug he believed would get approval. I'm happy to invest where Jin has chosen to work.
I also think Anavex will probably get approval for Alzheimer's, though I'm not sure it won't require another P3. I'd feel way better if Anavex had released a convincing TLR. Apart from the blanket statement that All Endpoints Were Met, it's really not in itself convincing, and I wish other longs would just admit it. If SAVA or some other little-known biotech or Biogen released a TLR with such a gaping hole in the stats, would basparks and the Likers ignore (and create apologies for) the hole so long as the CEO said endpoints were met? I doubt it. I wouldn't. (BTW, I have no gripe with basparks or anyone else on this board who appears honest and doesn't do things like say he teaches med school while proving be couldn't.) Back to the positives on blarcamesine for Alzheimer's, and why I'm "deep" in Anavex shares, I believe that if it wins approval it will blow away the mabs (which I think are junk and hope never get CMS coverage) and be huge.
Without going into my politics, I can say that I'm more disturbed when people "on my side" spread pro-my-side bullsh*t than I am when it's the "other side" (of whom I expect it) doing it. I am unhappy and feel less secure in my Anavex investment when it seems I'm among a coterie of True Believers who are impervious to reasonable skepticism and argue that the only reason for the low share price is short-seller manipulation. I'd rather invest in something honest skeptics believe in than in something that has what looks to me like unquestioning support. (Hence the signature I've chosen for this post. Look up the history of the stock mentioned there.)
I think the skeptics bring at least as much utility as the true believers to this board, but the skeptics are given short shrift while true believers can post any well-articulated rah-rah cheer (even posts like that one of basparks which is made, IMO, with great faith and eyes closed) and get inundated with Likes. I'm going to keep fighting for clear-eyed analysis even though I'm deeply long."
