Are We In A Recession Yet?
One common definition of recession — two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) — happened in the first half of 2022. Yet the organization that defines U.S. business cycles, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), takes a different view.
According to the NBER’s definition of recession — a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months — we were not in a recession in 2022 and we still aren’t now.
Until recently, the Federal Reserve was determined to raise interest rates until inflation got much, much lower. The cooling economy plus the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank — the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history — has inspired the Fed to starting talking about a pause in rate hikes.
To keep tabs on whether an official economic contraction is imminent, we’ve devised the following recession tracker, which monitors 15 important economic indicators. Once most of the signs point downward, a recession may very well be nigh.
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/are-we-in-a-recession/
My interpretation: talk is cheap but it can cause a whole lot of whoop-ass ... or pleasure if following your guess became true.
Question is: are you investing or are you gambling?
My way: buy the stock - - - sell its weekly Calls.
If assigned: wash, rinse, repeat. It's a way of making money while standing guard
